AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
Willem IIWillem IIDLLLL
Full time1-6Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1017:45UK
CambuurCambuurDWDWD

Willem II 1-6 Cambuur cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined63.4%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined36.6%

Result

Willem II1-6Cambuur
2 yellow cardsWillem II 2, Cambuur 0
0 red cardsWillem II 0, Cambuur 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 63.4% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 92.1% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards36.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Dennis Higler

Recorded match referee.

Dennis Higler in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 18 6
Goals 3.28 4.50
Yellow cards 2.89 1.67
Red cards 0.17 0.00
Corners 11.3 11.0
Fouls 23.3 23.3
Both teams scored 72% 67%
Over 2.5 goals 61% 67%
Home wins 28% 0%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Willem II vs Cambuur 1-6 7 Yes 2 0 17 27
18 Oct 2026 Groningen vs Ajax 2-5 7 Yes 3 0 11 29
19 Sep 2026 Willem II vs For Sittard 0-1 1 No 4 0 8 19
12 Sep 2026 Go Ahead Eagles vs Groningen 1-1 2 Yes 1 0 9 18
30 Aug 2026 Telstar vs Ajax 0-4 4 No 0 0 9 24
22 Aug 2026 Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht 3-3 6 Yes 0 0 12 23
21 Feb 2026 NAC Breda vs Volendam 1-0 1 No 4 0 9 26
8 Feb 2026 Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar 1-1 2 Yes 1 0 15 20
24 Jan 2026 PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda 2-2 4 Yes 7 0 14 26
17 Jan 2026 Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar 3-1 4 Yes 3 0 10 26

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Willem II vs Cambuur. The model leans toward Cambuur for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 58.8% 41.2%
3.5 cards 36.6% 63.4%
4.5 cards 19.7% 80.3%
5.5 cards 9.2% 90.8%

Who picks up more cards

Willem II
30.7%
Level
23.5%
Cambuur
45.8%

Team cards lines

Willem II

Over 1.5
39.1%
Over 2.5
15.7%

Cambuur

Over 1.5
50.6%
Over 2.5
24.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Willem II's; Cambuur gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Willem II line Willem II Cambuur
-1.5 13.6% 86.4%
-0.5 30.7% 69.4%
+0.5 54.2% 45.8%
+1.5 75.6% 24.4%

Red card

Any red card7.9%
Willem II red card4.2%
Cambuur red card3.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 59.6% 40.5%
22.5 fouls 44.3% 55.7%
24.5 fouls 30.3% 69.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Willem II R. Hensgens 2 3.0 1.5
Cambuur A. Lindhout 2 2.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 36.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 58.8% for over 2.5 to 9.2% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.8%. Head to head on cards, Cambuur are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 23.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Willem II over 1.5 cards sits at 39.1% and Cambuur at 50.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.9% (Willem II 4.2%, Cambuur 3.9%). Willem II’s most frequent referee this season, R. Hensgens, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

36.6%Over 3.5 cards
7.9%Any red card
45.8%Most cards: Cambuur
39.1%Willem II over 1.5 cards
50.6%Cambuur over 1.5 cards
44.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 36.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherR. Hensgens, Willem II’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.9%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianCambuur are the pick to collect more cards at 45.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
Willem IIWillem II

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CambuurCambuur
Statistic
Willem II
Cambuur
fouls per game
9.0
·

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 36.6% for Willem II vs Cambuur.
Will there be a red card in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 7.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Willem II vs Cambuur?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cambuur to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 23.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

EredivisieWillem II fixtures and statsCambuur fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.