AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
Union BerlinUnion BerlinWDLLL
Full time1-0Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1014:30UK16°C · Cloudy
ElversbergElversbergWWLD

Union Berlin 1-0 Elversberg cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.8%

Result

Union Berlin1-0Elversberg
3 yellow cardsUnion Berlin 2, Elversberg 1
0 red cardsUnion Berlin 0, Elversberg 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.2% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 91.8% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Union Berlin vs Elversberg. It tips Elversberg for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.8% 27.2%
3.5 cards 52.2% 47.8%
4.5 cards 32.8% 67.2%
5.5 cards 18.1% 81.9%

Who picks up more cards

Union Berlin
37.4%
Level
21.3%
Elversberg
41.3%

Team cards lines

Union Berlin

Over 1.5
54.9%
Over 2.5
28.0%

Elversberg

Over 1.5
57.7%
Over 2.5
30.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Union Berlin's; Elversberg gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Union Berlin line Union Berlin Elversberg
-1.5 19.7% 80.4%
-0.5 37.4% 62.6%
+0.5 58.8% 41.3%
+1.5 77.5% 22.6%

Red card

Any red card8.2%
Union Berlin red card3.7%
Elversberg red card4.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 53.6% 46.4%
22.5 fouls 41.4% 58.6%
24.5 fouls 30.4% 69.6%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 52.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 72.8% for over 2.5 to 18.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.2%. Between the two sides, Elversberg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.3%, with a level count at 21.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Union Berlin over 1.5 cards sits at 54.9% and Elversberg at 57.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.2% (Union Berlin 3.7%, Elversberg 4.7%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

52.2%Over 3.5 cards
8.2%Any red card
41.3%Most cards: Elversberg
54.9%Union Berlin over 1.5 cards
57.7%Elversberg over 1.5 cards
41.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.2%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianElversberg are the pick to collect more cards at 41.3%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 52.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Union Berlin vs Elversberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.2% for Union Berlin vs Elversberg.
Will there be a red card in Union Berlin vs Elversberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Union Berlin vs Elversberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Elversberg to pick up more cards at 41.3%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaUnion Berlin fixtures and statsElversberg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.