Union BerlinUnion BerlinWDLLL
ElversbergElversbergWWLDUnion Berlin 1-0 Elversberg correct score: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Union Berlin1-0Elversberg
Final score 1-0. The model gave that exact scoreline 7.2%.
Model read
No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.
Conviction: Open
Most likely · 10.8%1-1
Correct score
Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.
Rows = Union Berlin goals, columns = Elversberg goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%.
No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Darker cells carry more probability.
Most likely scorelines
- 1-110.8%
- 2-19.4%
- 1-07.2%
- 2-07.1%
- 1-26.9%
- 2-26.3%
- 3-15.8%
- 0-15.1%
Score probability grid
| H / A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Rows: Union Berlin · Columns: Elversberg
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
W
D
L
L
L
1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses
W
W
L
D
2 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Head-to-head
No recorded head-to-head results available.
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 10.8% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Union Berlin have averaged 1.6 scored and 3.4 conceded, Elversberg 2.0 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 61.5% for over 2.5 and 83.1% for at least two goals. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.
In-depth analysis
For the goal environment, the model sees 61.5% for three or more goals and 83.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Union Berlin favoured at 50.0%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Players to watch
Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.
Union BerlinUnion Berlin (1)
Tim Skarke
FAQ
What was the score in Union Berlin vs Elversberg?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Bundesliga, Correct Score
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
