AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 31 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
ToulouseToulouseDWDWD
Fri, 6 Nov 20266/1119:45UK12°C · Cloudy
StrasbourgStrasbourgDLLLL

Toulouse vs Strasbourg cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.2%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.9%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards48.9%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Toulouse vs Strasbourg. It tips Strasbourg for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.0% 30.0%
3.5 cards 48.9% 51.2%
4.5 cards 29.7% 70.3%
5.5 cards 15.8% 84.2%

Who picks up more cards

Toulouse
38.0%
Level
21.9%
Strasbourg
40.1%

Team cards lines

Toulouse

Over 1.5
53.2%
Over 2.5
26.5%

Strasbourg

Over 1.5
54.7%
Over 2.5
27.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Toulouse's; Strasbourg gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Toulouse line Toulouse Strasbourg
-1.5 19.8% 80.2%
-0.5 38.0% 62.0%
+0.5 59.9% 40.1%
+1.5 78.7% 21.3%

Red card

Any red card12.0%
Toulouse red card5.8%
Strasbourg red card6.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 75.2% 24.8%
22.5 fouls 62.0% 38.1%
24.5 fouls 47.6% 52.4%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Toulouse A. Petit 2 2.0 0.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

ToulouseToulouse

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Toulouse at home and Strasbourg away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

StrasbourgStrasbourg
Statistic
Toulouse
Strasbourg
Yellow cards per game
1.6
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
1.3

Matches with card data
3
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 10,300 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 31 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.0% for over 2.5 to 15.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.9%. Between the two sides, Strasbourg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.1%, with a level count at 21.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Toulouse over 1.5 cards sits at 53.2% and Strasbourg at 54.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.0% (Toulouse 5.8%, Strasbourg 6.5%). Toulouse’s most frequent referee this season, A. Petit, has averaged 2.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

48.9%Over 3.5 cards
12.0%Any red card
40.1%Most cards: Strasbourg
53.2%Toulouse over 1.5 cards
54.7%Strasbourg over 1.5 cards
62.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 48.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherA. Petit, Toulouse’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.0%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianStrasbourg are the pick to collect more cards at 40.1%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
ToulouseToulouse

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

StrasbourgStrasbourg
Statistic
Toulouse
Strasbourg
fouls per game
15.6
11.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.9% for Toulouse vs Strasbourg.
Will there be a red card in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
The model rates Strasbourg to pick up more cards at 40.1%, with a level count at 21.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Ligue 1Toulouse fixtures and statsStrasbourg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.