AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
Paris FCParis FCDWLWL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1116:15UK8°C · Cloudy
MonacoMonacoDWDLD

Paris FC vs Monaco cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.2%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Paris FC vs Monaco. Slightly more cards are projected for Monaco for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.2% 26.8%
3.5 cards 52.8% 47.2%
4.5 cards 33.3% 66.7%
5.5 cards 18.5% 81.5%

Who picks up more cards

Paris FC
38.7%
Level
21.3%
Monaco
40.1%

Team cards lines

Paris FC

Over 1.5
56.2%
Over 2.5
29.2%

Monaco

Over 1.5
57.2%
Over 2.5
30.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Paris FC's; Monaco gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Paris FC line Paris FC Monaco
-1.5 20.6% 79.4%
-0.5 38.7% 61.3%
+0.5 59.9% 40.1%
+1.5 78.3% 21.7%

Red card

Any red card14.3%
Paris FC red card9.8%
Monaco red card5.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 70.2% 29.8%
22.5 fouls 56.0% 44.0%
24.5 fouls 41.5% 58.5%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Paris FC J. Brisard 2 4.5 3.5
Paris FC Jeremy Stinat 2 3.0 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Paris FCParis FC

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Paris FC at home and Monaco away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MonacoMonaco
Statistic
Paris FC
Monaco
Yellow cards per game
2.4
2.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.2
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
1.9

Matches with more cards than the opponent
50.0%
·

Matches with card data
6
3
Red cards this season
0
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 52.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.2% for over 2.5 to 18.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.8%. Between the two sides, Monaco are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.1%, with a level count at 21.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Paris FC over 1.5 cards sits at 56.2% and Monaco at 57.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.3% (Paris FC 9.8%, Monaco 5.0%). Paris FC’s most frequent referee this season, J. Brisard, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

52.8%Over 3.5 cards
14.3%Any red card
40.1%Most cards: Monaco
56.2%Paris FC over 1.5 cards
57.2%Monaco over 1.5 cards
56.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ. Brisard, Paris FC’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianMonaco are the pick to collect more cards at 40.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
Paris FCParis FC

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MonacoMonaco
Statistic
Paris FC
Monaco
cards per game
2.2
·

fouls per game
14.0
12.5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Paris FC vs Monaco?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 52.8% for Paris FC vs Monaco.
Will there be a red card in Paris FC vs Monaco?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Paris FC vs Monaco?
The model rates Monaco to pick up more cards at 40.1%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Ligue 1Paris FC fixtures and statsMonaco fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.