Premier League
Tottenham vs 
Burnley Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 56.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 76.1% for over 2.5 to 21.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.5%. Head to head on cards, Burnley are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 20.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 21.4% | 78.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
53.7%
26.9%
64.4%
37.6%
Card handicap
| Tottenham line | Tottenham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.3% | 83.7% |
| -0.5 | 32.2% | 67.8% |
| +0.5 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| +1.5 | 72.0% | 28.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 38.2% | 61.8% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Tottenham vs Burnley. The model leans toward Burnley for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
56.5%Over 3.5 cards13.7%Any red card53.7%Tottenham over 1.5 cards64.4%Burnley over 1.5 cards53.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Tottenham over 1.5 cards sits at 53.7% and Burnley at 64.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.7% (Tottenham 4.0%, Burnley 10.2%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Tottenham vs Burnley?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 56.5% for Tottenham vs Burnley.
Will there be a red card in Tottenham vs Burnley?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Tottenham vs Burnley?
The model rates Burnley to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 20.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.