Tottenham vs Burnley prediction & probabilities (2025-08-16)

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Tottenham vs Burnley: model prediction

Premier League
Tottenham
Sat, 16 Aug 2025vs
Burnley
Model’s top convictions

84%

Over 1.5 goals

76%

Tottenham or draw

68%

Over 8.5 corners

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
TottenhamWin probability
55.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals84.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.19
Tottenham or draw76.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Over 8.5 corners68.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.46

Model read

▾

Tottenham go into this Premier League meeting with Burnley on 16 August 2025 as clear favourites; our model has them at 55%. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Tottenham at 70%. Caution noted. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 64% with both teams to score at 63%. Form guide over the last six: Tottenham W0 D1 L5, Burnley W1 D2 L3. Fatigue may matter, with Tottenham 371 days shorter on recovery than Burnley. Burnley are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Richarlison drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. Team news worth noting: Tottenham have Romero ruled out, Davies ruled out, Kudus ruled out, Kulusevski ruled out. The recent series reads 4 wins for Tottenham, 0 draws and 1 for Burnley over 5 games, 3.2 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Burnley44.8%@ 2.23
Over 11.5 corners39.6%@ 2.53
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners58.6%@ 1.71
Over 10.5 corners48.9%@ 2.04
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.2%@ 9.85
2-1 correct score9.6%@ 10.40
2-0 correct score7.5%@ 13.33

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Tottenham

55.2%-14.5%

Draw

21.2%+1.2%

Burnley

23.6%+13.3%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.3%

High probability

Over 2.563.6%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes62.9%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.568.3%

Strong chance

Over 9.558.6%

Good chance

Over 10.548.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.539.6%

Toss-up

Most cornersTottenham 54.6% · Burnley 35.6%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.3%2.563.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.563.6%

Discipline: NO_BET, too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

RicharlisonTottenham · key player
To score27.2%

@ 3.68

1+ on target50.5%

@ 1.98

2+ shots49.4%

@ 2.02

Shots/90 2.93SoT/90 1.24Goals/90 0.56
Zian FlemmingBurnley · key player
To score31.5%

@ 3.17

1+ on target51.4%

@ 1.95

2+ shots53.6%

@ 1.87

Shots/90 2.61SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.55
Son Heung-MinTottenham · in form
To score21.1%

@ 4.74

1+ on target58.1%

@ 1.72

2+ shots56.6%

@ 1.77

Shots/90 2.4SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.3
Jaidon AnthonyBurnley · in form
To score19.5%

@ 5.13

1+ on target46.5%

@ 2.15

2+ shots43.7%

@ 2.29

Shots/90 1.78SoT/90 0.75Goals/90 0.26
Dominic SolankeTottenham · in form
To score25.1%

@ 3.98

1+ on target57.6%

@ 1.74

2+ shots56.7%

@ 1.76

Shots/90 2.24SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.34
Loum TchaounaBurnley · in form
To score6.6%

@ 15.15

1+ on target24.2%

@ 4.13

2+ shots18.8%

@ 5.32

Shots/90 1.63SoT/90 0.57Goals/90 0.14

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Tottenham win1.87
Draw4.41
Burnley win4.17
Both teams to score1.59

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.19
Over 2.5 goals1.57
Over 3.5 goals2.41
Over 4.5 goals4.29
Tottenham most1.87
Burnley most4.17

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.22
Over 8.5 corners1.38
Over 9.5 corners1.62
Over 10.5 corners1.98
Tottenham most1.83
Burnley most2.80

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.31
Over 3.5 cards1.77
Over 4.5 cards2.70
Over 5.5 cards4.67
Tottenham most3.10
Burnley most2.11

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.21
Over 7.5 SoT1.36
Over 8.5 SoT1.60
Over 9.5 SoT1.95
Tottenham most1.92
Burnley most2.73

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.47
Over 24.5 shots1.76
Over 26.5 shots2.21
Over 28.5 shots2.91
Tottenham most1.73
Burnley most2.73

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.45
Over 22.5 fouls1.86
Over 24.5 fouls2.62

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • RomeroTottenhamOut0% to play
  • DaviesTottenhamOut0% to play
  • KudusTottenhamOut0% to play
  • KulusevskiTottenhamOut0% to play
  • OdobertTottenhamOut0% to play
  • XaviTottenhamOut0% to play
  • JordanBurnleyOut0% to play
  • CullenBurnleyOut0% to play
  • Josh Cullen, Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts, Axel Tuanzebe, Mike Tresor, Hannibal Mejbri, Jordan BeyerBurnleyOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 82.7% Over 7.5 73.4% Over 8.5 62.6% Over 9.5 51.3%
Most: Tottenham 52.1% Most: Burnley 36.6%
Tottenham Over 4.2 58.1% Burnley Over 4.2 47.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.1% Over 3.5 56.5% Over 4.5 37.0%
Most: Tottenham 32.2% Most: Burnley 47.4%
Tottenham Over 1.8 53.7% Burnley Over 1.8 64.4%

Tottenham: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Richarlison 2.93 1.24 0.56 50.5% 49.4% 27.2%
Son Heung-Min 2.4 1.1 0.3 58.1% 56.6% 21.1%
Dominic Solanke 2.24 1.01 0.34 57.6% 56.7% 25.1%
James Maddison 1.97 0.82 0.43 39.5% 34.0% 23.2%
Brennan Johnson 1.95 0.72 0.42 36.3% 34.5% 23.1%

Burnley: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Zian Flemming 2.61 1.05 0.55 51.4% 53.6% 31.5%
Jaidon Anthony 1.78 0.75 0.26 46.5% 43.7% 19.5%
Loum Tchaouna 1.63 0.57 0.14 24.2% 18.8% 6.6%
Armando Broja 1.75 0.55 0.11 18.9% 14.4% 4.1%
Marcus Edwards 1.96 0.43 0.09 19.7% 26.4% 4.5%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 53.4% draw 22.7% away 24.0%
double_chance
1X 76.0% 12 77.4% X2 46.7%
dnb
home 69.0% away 31.0%
btts
yes 62.9% no 37.1%
clean_sheet
home 27.7% away 13.7%
win_to_nil
home 23.4% away 9.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.8% home_by_2 16.3% home_by_3plus 15.3%
away_by_1 13.9% away_by_2 6.8% away_by_3plus 3.4%
correct_score
0-0 4.3% 0-1 4.4% 0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.3% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 7.0% 1-1 10.2% 1-2 6.2%
1-3 2.7% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.5% 2-1 9.6% 2-2 6.2%
2-3 2.6% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 5.0% 3-1 6.4% 3-2 4.1%
3-3 1.8% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 2.5% 4-1 3.2% 4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.9% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 1.0% 5-1 1.3% 5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.7% under_0.5 4.3% over_1.5 84.3%
under_1.5 15.7% over_2.5 63.6% under_2.5 36.4%
over_3.5 41.4% under_3.5 58.6% over_4.5 23.3%
under_4.5 76.7% over_5.5 11.4% under_5.5 88.6%
odd_even
odd 49.0% even 51.0%
team_home
over_0.5 86.4% under_0.5 13.7% over_1.5 59.2%
under_1.5 40.8% over_2.5 32.1% under_2.5 67.9%
team_away
over_0.5 72.3% under_0.5 27.7% over_1.5 36.8%
under_1.5 63.2% over_2.5 13.9% under_2.5 86.1%
most
home 53.4% draw 22.7% away 24.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 15.3% away_+2.5 84.7% home_-1.5 31.6%
away_+1.5 68.4% home_-0.5 53.4% away_+0.5 46.6%
home_+0.5 76.0% away_-0.5 24.0% home_+1.5 89.9%
away_-1.5 10.1% home_+2.5 96.7% away_-2.5 3.4%
total_exact
exact_0 4.3% exact_1 11.4% exact_2 20.8%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 18.1% exact_5 11.9%
exact_6 6.5% exact_7plus 4.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.3% draw 34.2% away 23.5%
total
over_0.5 80.4% under_0.5 19.6% over_1.5 48.5%
under_1.5 51.5% over_2.5 22.4% under_2.5 77.6%
btts
yes 29.8% no 70.2%
total_exact
exact_0 19.6% exact_1 31.9% exact_2 26.0%
exact_3 14.1% exact_4plus 8.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.3% draw 33.2% away 28.5%
total
over_0.5 82.8% under_0.5 17.2% over_1.5 52.4%
under_1.5 47.6% over_2.5 25.8% under_2.5 74.2%
btts
yes 33.9% no 66.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 33.8% H/D 5.9% H/A 2.6%
D/H 13.1% D/D 11.3% D/A 9.8%
A/H 2.7% A/D 4.7% A/A 16.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 82.0% under_7.5 18.1% over_8.5 72.6%
under_8.5 27.4% over_9.5 61.8% under_9.5 38.2%
over_10.5 50.4% under_10.5 49.6% over_11.5 39.5%
under_11.5 60.6% over_12.5 29.6% under_12.5 70.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.9% under_3.5 21.1% over_4.5 65.6%
under_4.5 34.4% over_5.5 51.4% under_5.5 48.6%
team_away
over_3.5 67.4% under_3.5 32.6% over_4.5 51.5%
under_4.5 48.5% over_5.5 36.6% under_5.5 63.4%
most
home 54.8% draw 9.6% away 35.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.9% away_+3.5 73.1% home_-1.5 44.9%
away_+1.5 55.1% home_-0.5 54.8% away_+0.5 45.2%
home_+0.5 64.3% away_-0.5 35.7% home_+1.5 73.1%
away_-1.5 27.0% home_+3.5 86.6% away_-3.5 13.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 67.8% under_22.5 32.2% over_24.5 56.7%
under_24.5 43.3% over_26.5 45.3% under_26.5 54.8%
over_28.5 34.4% under_28.5 65.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.3% under_10.5 26.7% over_12.5 58.4%
under_12.5 41.6% over_14.5 43.2% under_14.5 56.8%
team_away
over_10.5 59.9% under_10.5 40.1% over_12.5 43.2%
under_12.5 56.8% over_14.5 28.6% under_14.5 71.4%
most
home 57.8% draw 5.6% away 36.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.9% away_+4.5 65.1% home_-2.5 46.2%
away_+2.5 53.8% home_-0.5 57.8% away_+0.5 42.2%
home_+0.5 63.4% away_-0.5 36.6% home_+2.5 73.7%
away_-2.5 26.3% home_+4.5 82.2% away_-4.5 17.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 82.7% under_6.5 17.3% over_7.5 73.4%
under_7.5 26.6% over_8.5 62.6% under_8.5 37.4%
over_9.5 51.3% under_9.5 48.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.4% under_3.5 26.6% over_4.5 58.1%
under_4.5 41.9% over_5.5 42.8% under_5.5 57.2%
team_away
over_3.5 64.1% under_3.5 35.9% over_4.5 47.1%
under_4.5 52.9% over_5.5 31.9% under_5.5 68.1%
most
home 52.1% draw 11.3% away 36.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.0% away_+2.5 70.0% home_-0.5 52.1%
away_+0.5 47.9% home_+0.5 63.4% away_-0.5 36.6%
home_+2.5 82.1% away_-2.5 17.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.1% under_2.5 23.9% over_3.5 56.5%
under_3.5 43.5% over_4.5 37.0% under_4.5 63.0%
over_5.5 21.4% under_5.5 78.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.7% under_1.5 46.3% over_2.5 26.9%
under_2.5 73.1%
team_away
over_1.5 64.4% under_1.5 35.6% over_2.5 37.6%
under_2.5 62.4%
most
home 32.2% draw 20.4% away 47.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.3% away_+1.5 83.7% home_-0.5 32.2%
away_+0.5 67.8% home_+0.5 52.6% away_-0.5 47.4%
home_+1.5 72.0% away_-1.5 28.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 69.1% under_20.5 30.9% over_22.5 53.7%
under_22.5 46.3% over_24.5 38.2% under_24.5 61.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 63.0% under_9.5 37.0% over_11.5 39.9%
under_11.5 60.1% over_13.5 21.0% under_13.5 79.0%
team_away
over_9.5 77.4% under_9.5 22.6% over_11.5 57.1%
under_11.5 42.9% over_13.5 36.0% under_13.5 64.0%
most
home 34.2% draw 7.6% away 58.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 15.7% away_+3.5 84.3% home_-0.5 34.2%
away_+0.5 65.8% home_+2.5 57.7% away_-2.5 42.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.7% no 86.3%
home
yes 4.0% no 96.0%
away
yes 10.2% no 89.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Tottenham predictions · Burnley predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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