Premier League
Bournemouth vs 
Brentford Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 55.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.2% for over 2.5 to 20.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.3%. Head to head on cards, Brentford are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.1%, with a level count at 20.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.4% | 79.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.9%
28.9%
60.9%
33.9%
Card handicap
| Bournemouth line | Bournemouth | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.9% | 81.1% |
| -0.5 | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| +0.5 | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| +1.5 | 75.6% | 24.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.2% | 72.9% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bournemouth vs Brentford. It tips Brentford for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
55.3%Over 3.5 cards5.4%Any red card55.9%Bournemouth over 1.5 cards60.9%Brentford over 1.5 cards41.7%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Bournemouth over 1.5 cards sits at 55.9% and Brentford at 60.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.4% (Bournemouth 2.4%, Brentford 3.1%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Bournemouth vs Brentford?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.3% for Bournemouth vs Brentford.
Will there be a red card in Bournemouth vs Brentford?
The model rates a red card for either side at 5.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bournemouth vs Brentford?
The model rates Brentford to pick up more cards at 43.1%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.