Premier League
Crystal Palace vs 
Ipswich Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 47.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 69.1% for over 2.5 to 15.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.7%. Head to head on cards, Ipswich are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 21.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.1% | 84.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.7%
23.4%
56.6%
29.5%
Card handicap
| Crystal Palace line | Crystal Palace | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.0% | 83.0% |
| -0.5 | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| +0.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| +1.5 | 76.0% | 24.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 23.2% | 76.8% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Crystal Palace vs Ipswich. It tips Ipswich for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
47.7%Over 3.5 cards12.0%Any red card49.7%Crystal Palace over 1.5 cards56.6%Ipswich over 1.5 cards37.0%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Crystal Palace over 1.5 cards sits at 49.7% and Ipswich at 56.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.0% (Crystal Palace 4.0%, Ipswich 8.3%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Crystal Palace vs Ipswich?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 47.7% for Crystal Palace vs Ipswich.
Will there be a red card in Crystal Palace vs Ipswich?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Crystal Palace vs Ipswich?
The model rates Ipswich to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 21.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.