Premier League
Tottenham vs 
Everton Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 55.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.5% for over 2.5 to 20.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.7%. Between the two sides, Everton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.6%, with a level count at 20.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.7% | 79.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
53.7%
26.9%
63.4%
36.5%
Card handicap
| Tottenham line | Tottenham | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.7% | 83.3% |
| -0.5 | 32.9% | 67.2% |
| +0.5 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| +1.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 35.3% | 64.7% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Tottenham vs Everton. It tips Everton for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
55.7%Over 3.5 cards11.4%Any red card53.7%Tottenham over 1.5 cards63.4%Everton over 1.5 cards50.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Tottenham over 1.5 cards sits at 53.7% and Everton at 63.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.4% (Tottenham 1.9%, Everton 9.7%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Tottenham vs Everton?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.7% for Tottenham vs Everton.
Will there be a red card in Tottenham vs Everton?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Tottenham vs Everton?
The model rates Everton to pick up more cards at 46.6%, with a level count at 20.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.