Premier League
Chelsea vs 
Hull Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 58.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 77.9% for over 2.5 to 23.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 59.0%. Between the two sides, Hull are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.1%, with a level count at 19.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 77.9% | 22.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 59.0% | 41.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 23.4% | 76.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
54.3%
27.5%
66.9%
40.4%
Card handicap
| Chelsea line | Chelsea | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| -0.5 | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| +0.5 | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| +1.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 30.6% | 69.4% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Chelsea vs Hull. It tips Hull for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
59.0%Over 3.5 cards9.8%Any red card54.3%Chelsea over 1.5 cards66.9%Hull over 1.5 cards45.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Chelsea over 1.5 cards sits at 54.3% and Hull at 66.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.8% (Chelsea 6.0%, Hull 4.0%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Chelsea vs Hull?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 59.0% for Chelsea vs Hull.
Will there be a red card in Chelsea vs Hull?
The model rates a red card for either side at 9.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Chelsea vs Hull?
The model rates Hull to pick up more cards at 49.1%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.