Wolves vs Manchester City prediction & probabilities (2025-08-16)

By /

Wolves vs Manchester City: model prediction

Premier League
Wolves
Sat, 16 Aug 2025vs
Manchester City
Model’s top convictions

83%

Draw or Manchester City

80%

Over 1.5 goals

62%

Over 8.5 corners

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Manchester CityWin probability
60.5%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Manchester City82.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Over 1.5 goals79.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.25
Over 8.5 corners62.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

Manchester City go into this Premier League meeting with Wolves on 16 August 2025 as clear favourites; our model has them at 60%. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Manchester City at 67%. Caution noted. • No strong lean on goals (57% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • The recent series reads 1 wins for Wolves, 0 draws and 4 for Manchester City over 5 games, 3.2 goals on average. • Squad notes: Wolves have Johnstone ruled out, Doherty ruled out. For shots markets, Matheus Cunha is the obvious watch at 1.5 on target per 90 in recent data. Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for Wolves against W5 D1 L0 for Manchester City. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners41.8%@ 2.39
Wolves or draw39.5%@ 2.53
Over 11.5 corners32.7%@ 3.06
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals56.6%@ 1.77
Both teams to score55.8%@ 1.79
Over 9.5 corners51.7%@ 1.93
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.9%@ 9.14
1-2 correct score9.9%@ 10.11
0-2 correct score9.4%@ 10.64

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Wolves

17.4%+3.6%

Draw

22.1%+2.9%

Manchester City

60.5%-6.5%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.9%

High probability

Over 2.556.6%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes55.8%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.7%

Good chance

Over 10.541.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.532.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersWolves 41.4% · Manchester City 48.1%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.9%2.556.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.9%

Discipline: NO_BET, too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14).

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Matheus CunhaWolves · key player
To score36.8%

@ 2.72

1+ on target73.6%

@ 1.36

2+ shots84.5%

@ 1.18

Shots/90 3.78SoT/90 1.51Goals/90 0.52
Erling HaalandManchester City · key player
To score52.4%

@ 1.91

1+ on target82.7%

@ 1.21

2+ shots86.9%

@ 1.15

Shots/90 3.68SoT/90 1.82Goals/90 0.77
Tolu ArokodareWolves · in form
To score8.7%

@ 11.49

1+ on target38.4%

@ 2.60

2+ shots40.6%

@ 2.46

Shots/90 3.05SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.2
Omar MarmoushManchester City · in form
To score23.8%

@ 4.20

1+ on target50.5%

@ 1.98

2+ shots63.0%

@ 1.59

Shots/90 3.77SoT/90 1.24Goals/90 0.48
Pablo SarabiaWolves · in form
To score12.1%

@ 8.26

1+ on target29.3%

@ 3.41

2+ shots16.9%

@ 5.92

Shots/90 1.94SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.34
SávioManchester City · in form
To score3.7%

@ 27.03

1+ on target41.0%

@ 2.44

2+ shots40.7%

@ 2.46

Shots/90 2.57SoT/90 0.97Goals/90 0.07

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Wolves win4.98
Draw4.31
Manchester City win1.76
Both teams to score1.79

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.25
Over 2.5 goals1.77
Over 3.5 goals2.92
Wolves most4.98
Manchester City most1.76

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.53
Over 9.5 corners1.86
Over 10.5 corners2.38
Wolves most2.41
Manchester City most2.07

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.39
Over 3.5 cards1.96
Over 4.5 cards3.15
Over 5.5 cards5.76
Wolves most2.34
Manchester City most2.80

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.29
Over 7.5 SoT1.50
Over 8.5 SoT1.83
Over 9.5 SoT2.33
Wolves most2.70
Manchester City most1.96

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.59
Over 24.5 shots1.94
Over 26.5 shots2.50
Over 28.5 shots3.37
Wolves most2.18
Manchester City most2.08

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.99
Over 22.5 fouls2.93
Over 24.5 fouls4.79

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • JohnstoneWolvesOut0% to play
  • DohertyWolvesOut0% to play
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 77.3% Over 7.5 66.5% Over 8.5 54.7% Over 9.5 43.0%
Most: Wolves 37.1% Most: Manchester City 51.0%
Wolves Over 4.2 41.8% Manchester City Over 4.2 51.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.9% Over 3.5 51.1% Over 4.5 31.8%
Most: Wolves 42.8% Most: Manchester City 35.7%
Wolves Over 1.8 58.1% Manchester City Over 1.8 52.9%

Wolves: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Matheus Cunha 3.78 1.51 0.52 73.6% 84.5% 36.8%
Tolu Arokodare 3.05 1.06 0.2 38.4% 40.6% 8.7%
Pablo Sarabia 1.94 0.91 0.34 29.3% 16.9% 12.1%
Jørgen Strand Larsen 1.67 0.89 0.33 50.3% 37.8% 22.9%
Mateus Mané 2.07 0.86 0.15 45.6% 43.1% 10.1%

Manchester City: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Erling Haaland 3.68 1.82 0.77 82.7% 86.9% 52.4%
Omar Marmoush 3.77 1.24 0.48 50.5% 63.0% 23.8%
Sávio 2.57 0.97 0.07 41.0% 40.7% 3.7%
Antoine Semenyo 2.15 0.89 0.44 56.2% 59.3% 33.5%
Phil Foden 2.55 0.82 0.33 43.8% 53.4% 20.7%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 20.1% draw 23.2% away 56.7%
double_chance
1X 43.3% 12 76.8% X2 79.9%
dnb
home 26.2% away 73.8%
btts
yes 55.9% no 44.2%
clean_sheet
home 15.0% away 34.9%
win_to_nil
home 9.2% away 29.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 12.6% home_by_2 5.4% home_by_3plus 2.1%
away_by_1 23.2% away_by_2 17.5% away_by_3plus 16.0%
correct_score
0-0 5.8% 0-1 9.4% 0-2 9.4%
0-3 6.0% 0-4 2.9% 0-5 1.1%
1-0 5.0% 1-1 10.9% 1-2 9.9%
1-3 6.3% 1-4 3.0% 1-5 1.2%
2-0 2.9% 2-1 5.5% 2-2 5.2%
2-3 3.3% 2-4 1.6% 2-5 0.6%
3-0 1.0% 3-1 1.9% 3-2 1.8%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.3% 4-1 0.5% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.2% under_0.5 5.8% over_1.5 79.9%
under_1.5 20.1% over_2.5 56.6% under_2.5 43.4%
over_3.5 34.3% under_3.5 65.7% over_4.5 17.8%
under_4.5 82.2% over_5.5 8.0% under_5.5 92.0%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 65.1% under_0.5 34.9% over_1.5 28.3%
under_1.5 71.7% over_2.5 9.0% under_2.5 91.0%
team_away
over_0.5 85.0% under_0.5 15.0% over_1.5 56.7%
under_1.5 43.4% over_2.5 29.7% under_2.5 70.3%
most
home 20.1% draw 23.2% away 56.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.1% away_+2.5 97.9% home_-1.5 7.5%
away_+1.5 92.5% home_-0.5 20.1% away_+0.5 79.9%
home_+0.5 43.3% away_-0.5 56.7% home_+1.5 66.5%
away_-1.5 33.5% home_+2.5 84.0% away_-2.5 16.0%
total_exact
exact_0 5.8% exact_1 14.4% exact_2 23.2%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 16.5% exact_5 9.8%
exact_6 4.8% exact_7plus 3.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 18.0% draw 33.2% away 48.8%
total
over_0.5 80.0% under_0.5 20.0% over_1.5 47.8%
under_1.5 52.3% over_2.5 21.9% under_2.5 78.1%
btts
yes 27.1% no 72.9%
total_exact
exact_0 20.0% exact_1 32.2% exact_2 25.9%
exact_3 13.9% exact_4plus 8.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 19.7% draw 35.6% away 44.7%
total
over_0.5 77.4% under_0.5 22.6% over_1.5 43.8%
under_1.5 56.2% over_2.5 18.8% under_2.5 81.2%
btts
yes 25.4% no 74.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 11.1% H/D 4.3% H/A 2.6%
D/H 6.6% D/D 11.8% D/A 14.8%
A/H 1.4% A/D 4.9% A/A 42.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.2% under_7.5 23.8% over_8.5 65.4%
under_8.5 34.6% over_9.5 53.6% under_9.5 46.4%
over_10.5 42.0% under_10.5 58.0% over_11.5 31.4%
under_11.5 68.6% over_12.5 22.5% under_12.5 77.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.1% under_3.5 32.9% over_4.5 51.1%
under_4.5 48.9% over_5.5 36.2% under_5.5 63.8%
team_away
over_3.5 71.4% under_3.5 28.6% over_4.5 56.2%
under_4.5 43.8% over_5.5 41.2% under_5.5 58.8%
most
home 41.5% draw 10.3% away 48.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 16.2% away_+3.5 83.8% home_-1.5 31.8%
away_+1.5 68.2% home_-0.5 41.5% away_+0.5 58.5%
home_+0.5 51.8% away_-0.5 48.2% home_+1.5 61.9%
away_-1.5 38.1% home_+3.5 79.3% away_-3.5 20.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 63.0% under_22.5 37.0% over_24.5 51.4%
under_24.5 48.6% over_26.5 40.1% under_26.5 59.9%
over_28.5 29.7% under_28.5 70.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 63.0% under_10.5 37.0% over_12.5 46.5%
under_12.5 53.5% over_14.5 31.6% under_14.5 68.4%
team_away
over_10.5 64.4% under_10.5 35.6% over_12.5 48.0%
under_12.5 52.0% over_14.5 33.1% under_14.5 67.0%
most
home 46.0% draw 5.9% away 48.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 24.4% away_+4.5 75.6% home_-2.5 34.5%
away_+2.5 65.5% home_-0.5 46.0% away_+0.5 54.0%
home_+0.5 51.9% away_-0.5 48.1% home_+2.5 63.4%
away_-2.5 36.6% home_+4.5 73.9% away_-4.5 26.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 77.3% under_6.5 22.7% over_7.5 66.5%
under_7.5 33.5% over_8.5 54.7% under_8.5 45.4%
over_9.5 43.0% under_9.5 57.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 59.2% under_3.5 40.8% over_4.5 41.8%
under_4.5 58.2% over_5.5 27.1% under_5.5 72.9%
team_away
over_3.5 68.3% under_3.5 31.8% over_4.5 51.8%
under_4.5 48.2% over_5.5 36.5% under_5.5 63.5%
most
home 37.1% draw 11.9% away 51.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 17.5% away_+2.5 82.5% home_-0.5 37.1%
away_+0.5 62.9% home_+0.5 49.0% away_-0.5 51.0%
home_+2.5 71.8% away_-2.5 28.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.9% under_2.5 28.1% over_3.5 51.1%
under_3.5 48.9% over_4.5 31.8% under_4.5 68.2%
over_5.5 17.4% under_5.5 82.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 58.1% under_1.5 41.9% over_2.5 31.0%
under_2.5 69.0%
team_away
over_1.5 52.9% under_1.5 47.1% over_2.5 26.3%
under_2.5 73.8%
most
home 42.8% draw 21.4% away 35.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 23.7% away_+1.5 76.4% home_-0.5 42.8%
away_+0.5 57.2% home_+0.5 64.3% away_-0.5 35.8%
home_+1.5 81.7% away_-1.5 18.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 50.2% under_20.5 49.8% over_22.5 34.1%
under_22.5 65.9% over_24.5 20.9% under_24.5 79.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 65.8% under_9.5 34.2% over_11.5 43.0%
under_11.5 57.0% over_13.5 23.5% under_13.5 76.5%
team_away
over_9.5 49.3% under_9.5 50.7% over_11.5 26.9%
under_11.5 73.1% over_13.5 12.0% under_13.5 88.0%
most
home 57.8% draw 8.1% away 34.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 33.0% away_+3.5 67.0% home_-0.5 57.8%
away_+0.5 42.2% home_+2.5 79.8% away_-2.5 20.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.1% no 88.9%
home
yes 5.0% no 95.1%
away
yes 6.5% no 93.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Wolves predictions · Manchester City predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Premier LeagueWolvesManchester CityTrack record