Sunderland vs West Ham prediction & probabilities (2025-08-16)

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Sunderland vs West Ham: model prediction

Premier League
Sunderland
Sat, 16 Aug 2025vs
West Ham
Model’s top convictions

78%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Draw or West Ham

63%

Over 8.5 corners

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
West HamWin probability
39.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals78.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Draw or West Ham65.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.53
Over 8.5 corners62.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.60

Model read

▾

Expect a tight one: the model splits Sunderland and West Ham almost evenly, West Ham marginally on top at 40%. The numbers that frame it: • Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 42%. • Totals sit close to the fence: 54% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 58%. • Schedule edge: Sunderland have had 2927 more days of rest than West Ham. Sunderland are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Sunderland, 2 draws and 3 for West Ham, averaging 2.2 goals a game. Team news worth noting: Sunderland have Mundle ruled out, Talbi ruled out, Alderete a doubt, Jocelin Ta Bi, Romaine Mundle, Bertrand Traore, Nilson Angulo, Nordi Mukiele, Robin Roefs, Enzo Le Fee ruled out. The run in: Sunderland arrive W1 D0 L5, West Ham W2 D2 L2. Wilson Isidor drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.29).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.4%@ 2.36
West Ham win39.7%@ 2.52
Over 11.5 corners33.3%@ 3.00
Medium risk

Sunderland or draw60.3%@ 1.66
Both teams to score58.2%@ 1.72
Over 2.5 goals54.3%@ 1.84
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.3%@ 8.12
1-2 correct score8.6%@ 11.59
2-1 correct score8.1%@ 12.38

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Sunderland

34.8%+5.2%

Draw

25.6%-2.5%

West Ham

39.7%-2.8%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.29)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.3%

High probability

Over 2.554.3%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes58.2%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.3%

Good chance

Over 10.542.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.533.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersSunderland 56.4% · West Ham 33.5%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.3%2.554.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.578.3%

Discipline: NO_BET, too extreme an outsider (fair 0.29).

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Wilson IsidorSunderland · key player
To score17.0%

@ 5.88

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots38.9%

@ 2.57

Shots/90 3.39SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.47
Valentín CastellanosWest Ham · key player
To score28.5%

@ 3.51

1+ on target68.8%

@ 1.45

2+ shots76.6%

@ 1.31

Shots/90 3.15SoT/90 1.32Goals/90 0.38
Bertrand TraoréSunderland · in form
To score7.8%

@ 12.82

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 1.6SoT/90 0.8Goals/90 0.13
Callum WilsonWest Ham · in form
To score19.6%

@ 5.10

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots33.2%

@ 3.01

Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.51
Brian BrobbeySunderland · in form
To score20.0%

@ 5.00

1+ on target42.3%

@ 2.36

2+ shots32.4%

@ 3.09

Shots/90 1.67SoT/90 0.79Goals/90 0.32
Jarrod BowenWest Ham · in form
To score26.4%

@ 3.79

1+ on target58.9%

@ 1.70

2+ shots67.0%

@ 1.49

Shots/90 2.33SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.31

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sunderland win2.87
Draw3.82
West Ham win2.56
Both teams to score1.72

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.28
Over 2.5 goals1.84
Over 3.5 goals3.13
Sunderland most2.87
West Ham most2.56

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.51
Over 9.5 corners1.84
Over 10.5 corners2.34
Sunderland most1.77
West Ham most2.98

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.40
Over 3.5 cards1.97
Over 4.5 cards3.19
Over 5.5 cards5.86
Sunderland most3.32
West Ham most2.05

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.28
Over 7.5 SoT1.49
Over 8.5 SoT1.80
Over 9.5 SoT2.28
Sunderland most1.79
West Ham most3.06

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.46
Over 24.5 shots1.74
Over 26.5 shots2.18
Over 28.5 shots2.85
Sunderland most1.67
West Ham most2.88

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.67
Over 22.5 fouls2.28
Over 24.5 fouls3.45

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • MundleSunderlandOut0% to play
  • TalbiSunderlandOut0% to play
  • AldereteSunderlandDoubtful50% to play
  • Jocelin Ta Bi, Romaine Mundle, Bertrand Traore, Nilson Angulo, Nordi Mukiele, Robin Roefs, Enzo Le FeeSunderlandOut
  • AdamaWest HamDoubtful25% to play
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 77.9% Over 7.5 67.2% Over 8.5 55.5% Over 9.5 43.8%
Most: Sunderland 55.7% Most: West Ham 32.7%
Sunderland Over 4.2 55.6% West Ham Over 4.2 38.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.5% Over 3.5 50.7% Over 4.5 31.4%
Most: Sunderland 30.2% Most: West Ham 48.8%
Sunderland Over 1.8 48.1% West Ham Over 1.8 61.7%

Sunderland: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Wilson Isidor 3.39 1.26 0.47 39.3% 38.9% 17.0%
Bertrand Traoré 1.6 0.8 0.13 39.3% 26.4% 7.8%
Brian Brobbey 1.67 0.79 0.32 42.3% 32.4% 20.0%
Eliezer Mayenda 1.58 0.73 0.24 25.9% 13.8% 9.4%
Habib Diarra 1.65 0.45 0.13 29.8% 37.2% 9.7%

West Ham: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Valentín Castellanos 3.15 1.32 0.38 68.8% 76.6% 28.5%
Callum Wilson 2.78 1.17 0.51 39.3% 33.2% 19.6%
Jarrod Bowen 2.33 0.9 0.31 58.9% 67.0% 26.4%
Niclas Füllkrug 1.89 0.76 0.23 32.1% 25.0% 11.0%
Mohammed Kudus 2.56 0.72 0.17 48.2% 67.9% 14.4%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 34.8% draw 26.2% away 39.0%
double_chance
1X 61.0% 12 73.9% X2 65.2%
dnb
home 47.2% away 52.9%
btts
yes 58.2% no 41.8%
clean_sheet
home 22.9% away 25.2%
win_to_nil
home 16.6% away 18.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.7% home_by_2 10.3% home_by_3plus 5.8%
away_by_1 20.0% away_by_2 11.7% away_by_3plus 7.3%
correct_score
0-0 6.4% 0-1 7.9% 0-2 6.3%
0-3 3.1% 0-4 1.1% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 7.4% 1-1 12.3% 1-2 8.6%
1-3 4.2% 1-4 1.6% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.5% 2-1 8.1% 2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.9% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.5% 3-1 3.7% 3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.9% 4-1 1.3% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.6% under_0.5 6.4% over_1.5 78.3%
under_1.5 21.7% over_2.5 54.3% under_2.5 45.7%
over_3.5 32.0% under_3.5 68.1% over_4.5 16.0%
under_4.5 84.0% over_5.5 7.0% under_5.5 93.0%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 74.8% under_0.5 25.2% over_1.5 40.1%
under_1.5 59.9% over_2.5 16.1% under_2.5 83.9%
team_away
over_0.5 77.1% under_0.5 22.9% over_1.5 43.3%
under_1.5 56.7% over_2.5 18.4% under_2.5 81.6%
most
home 34.8% draw 26.2% away 39.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.8% away_+2.5 94.2% home_-1.5 16.1%
away_+1.5 83.9% home_-0.5 34.8% away_+0.5 65.2%
home_+0.5 61.0% away_-0.5 39.0% home_+1.5 81.0%
away_-1.5 19.0% home_+2.5 92.7% away_-2.5 7.3%
total_exact
exact_0 6.4% exact_1 15.3% exact_2 24.1%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.9% exact_5 9.1%
exact_6 4.3% exact_7plus 2.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 41.7% draw 39.0% away 19.3%
total
over_0.5 72.7% under_0.5 27.3% over_1.5 37.2%
under_1.5 62.8% over_2.5 14.2% under_2.5 85.8%
btts
yes 21.0% no 79.0%
total_exact
exact_0 27.3% exact_1 35.4% exact_2 23.0%
exact_3 9.9% exact_4plus 4.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.2% draw 34.3% away 30.5%
total
over_0.5 81.3% under_0.5 18.7% over_1.5 50.0%
under_1.5 50.0% over_2.5 23.7% under_2.5 76.3%
btts
yes 32.2% no 67.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 32.2% H/D 6.6% H/A 2.9%
D/H 13.7% D/D 13.4% D/A 11.9%
A/H 2.0% A/D 3.8% A/A 13.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.8% under_7.5 23.3% over_8.5 66.0%
under_8.5 34.0% over_9.5 54.3% under_9.5 45.7%
over_10.5 42.7% under_10.5 57.3% over_11.5 32.1%
under_11.5 67.9% over_12.5 23.0% under_12.5 77.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.5% under_3.5 23.5% over_4.5 62.4%
under_4.5 37.6% over_5.5 47.8% under_5.5 52.2%
team_away
over_3.5 61.5% under_3.5 38.5% over_4.5 44.9%
under_4.5 55.2% over_5.5 30.3% under_5.5 69.7%
most
home 56.6% draw 9.9% away 33.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.3% away_+3.5 72.7% home_-1.5 46.3%
away_+1.5 53.7% home_-0.5 56.6% away_+0.5 43.4%
home_+0.5 66.5% away_-0.5 33.6% home_+1.5 75.3%
away_-1.5 24.7% home_+3.5 88.5% away_-3.5 11.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 68.5% under_22.5 31.5% over_24.5 57.4%
under_24.5 42.7% over_26.5 45.9% under_26.5 54.1%
over_28.5 35.0% under_28.5 65.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.8% under_10.5 25.2% over_12.5 60.2%
under_12.5 39.8% over_14.5 45.1% under_14.5 54.9%
team_away
over_10.5 58.9% under_10.5 41.1% over_12.5 42.2%
under_12.5 57.8% over_14.5 27.7% under_14.5 72.3%
most
home 59.8% draw 5.5% away 34.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.9% away_+4.5 63.1% home_-2.5 48.3%
away_+2.5 51.7% home_-0.5 59.8% away_+0.5 40.2%
home_+0.5 65.3% away_-0.5 34.7% home_+2.5 75.3%
away_-2.5 24.7% home_+4.5 83.5% away_-4.5 16.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 77.9% under_6.5 22.1% over_7.5 67.2%
under_7.5 32.8% over_8.5 55.5% under_8.5 44.5%
over_9.5 43.9% under_9.5 56.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.4% under_3.5 28.6% over_4.5 55.6%
under_4.5 44.4% over_5.5 40.2% under_5.5 59.8%
team_away
over_3.5 56.4% under_3.5 43.6% over_4.5 38.9%
under_4.5 61.2% over_5.5 24.5% under_5.5 75.5%
most
home 55.7% draw 11.6% away 32.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.4% away_+2.5 67.6% home_-0.5 55.7%
away_+0.5 44.3% home_+0.5 67.3% away_-0.5 32.7%
home_+2.5 85.4% away_-2.5 14.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.6% under_2.5 28.4% over_3.5 50.7%
under_3.5 49.3% over_4.5 31.4% under_4.5 68.6%
over_5.5 17.1% under_5.5 82.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 48.1% under_1.5 51.9% over_2.5 22.1%
under_2.5 77.9%
team_away
over_1.5 61.7% under_1.5 38.3% over_2.5 34.7%
under_2.5 65.3%
most
home 30.2% draw 21.1% away 48.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 14.4% away_+1.5 85.6% home_-0.5 30.2%
away_+0.5 69.8% home_+0.5 51.2% away_-0.5 48.8%
home_+1.5 71.5% away_-1.5 28.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 60.0% under_20.5 40.0% over_22.5 43.8%
under_22.5 56.2% over_24.5 29.0% under_24.5 71.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 60.5% under_9.5 39.6% over_11.5 37.3%
under_11.5 62.7% over_13.5 19.1% under_13.5 81.0%
team_away
over_9.5 68.5% under_9.5 31.5% over_11.5 46.0%
under_11.5 54.0% over_13.5 25.9% under_13.5 74.1%
most
home 39.8% draw 8.1% away 52.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 19.0% away_+3.5 81.0% home_-0.5 39.8%
away_+0.5 60.2% home_+2.5 64.1% away_-2.5 35.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 9.6% no 90.4%
home
yes 3.7% no 96.3%
away
yes 6.1% no 93.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sunderland predictions · West Ham predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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