Premier League
Tottenham vs 
Burnley Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 63.6%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. That fits an open goals environment: 63.6% for over 2.5 and 84.3% for at least two goals. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.7% | 4.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 84.3% | 15.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 23.3% | 76.7% |
| 5.5 goals | 11.4% | 88.6% |
Team goal lines
86.4%
59.2%
32.1%
72.3%
36.8%
13.9%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 80.4% | 19.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 22.4% | 77.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 82.8% | 17.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 25.8% | 74.2% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
62.9%Both Teams to Score63.6%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 63.6% for three or more goals and 84.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Tottenham favoured at 55.2%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Tottenham to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Tottenham vs Burnley?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 63.6% for Tottenham vs Burnley.
Will there be a first-half goal in Tottenham vs Burnley?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 80.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,496 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.