Premier League
Tottenham vs 
Burnley Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 58.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 82.0% for over 7.5 to 29.6% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.4%. On the corner count, Tottenham are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.8%, with a level count at 9.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 82.0% | 18.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 10.5 corners | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 39.5% | 60.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 29.6% | 70.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
78.9%
65.6%
51.4%
67.4%
51.5%
36.6%
Corner handicap
| Tottenham line | Tottenham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| -0.5 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| +0.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| +1.5 | 73.1% | 27.0% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Tottenham.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Tottenham over 4.5 corners sits at 65.6% and Burnley at 51.5%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Tottenham vs Burnley?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 61.8% for Tottenham vs Burnley.
Which team will win the corner count in Tottenham vs Burnley?
The model rates Tottenham to win the corner count at 54.8%, with a level count at 9.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 1,504 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Corners actually happened 62.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.