AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

League Two
SwindonSwindonLLDWD
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK
RotherhamRotherhamLLLDD

Swindon vs Rotherham cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined57.9%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42.1%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards42.1%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Isaac Searle

Assigned per API-Football, seen 28 Oct 2026, 12:06 UTC. An assignment can change before kickoff.

Isaac Searle in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 10 4
Goals 2.40 Not available
Yellow cards 3.40 Not available
Red cards 0.10 Not available
Corners 10.1 Not available
Fouls 20.4 Not available
Both teams scored 50% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 40% Not available
Home wins 40% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury 2-3 5 Yes 5 0 6 16
26 Sep 2026 Oldham vs Salford 1-4 5 Yes 2 0 16 26
19 Sep 2026 Exeter vs Tranmere 0-0 0 No 5 0 8 26
29 Aug 2026 Shrewsbury vs Salford 1-0 1 No 1 0 8 24
17 Mar 2026 Salford vs Barrow 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 7 15
3 Mar 2026 Newport County vs Tranmere 3-1 4 Yes 4 1 12 16
17 Feb 2026 Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town 0-0 0 No 4 0 11 21
24 Jan 2026 Notts County vs Crewe 1-0 1 No 4 0 12 22
29 Dec 2025 Cheltenham vs Swindon 0-2 2 No 2 0 11 15
13 Dec 2025 Walsall vs Shrewsbury 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 10 23

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Swindon vs Rotherham. The model leans toward Rotherham for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 64.2% 35.8%
3.5 cards 42.1% 57.9%
4.5 cards 23.8% 76.2%
5.5 cards 11.8% 88.2%

Who picks up more cards

Swindon
37.1%
Level
23.0%
Rotherham
40.0%

Team cards lines

Swindon

Over 1.5
48.1%
Over 2.5
22.2%

Rotherham

Over 1.5
50.3%
Over 2.5
23.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Swindon's; Rotherham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Swindon line Swindon Rotherham
-1.5 18.4% 81.6%
-0.5 37.1% 62.9%
+0.5 60.1% 40.0%
+1.5 79.5% 20.5%

Red card

Any red card22.0%
Swindon red card17.2%
Rotherham red card5.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 54.9% 45.1%
22.5 fouls 38.9% 61.1%
24.5 fouls 25.1% 74.9%
SwindonSwindon

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Swindon at home and Rotherham away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

RotherhamRotherham
Statistic
Swindon
Rotherham
Yellow cards per game
1.7
2.1

First-half yellow cards per game
0.3
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
1.5

Matches with card data
7
5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 42.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 64.2% for over 2.5 to 11.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.1%. Between the two sides, Rotherham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.0%, with a level count at 23.0%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Swindon over 1.5 cards sits at 48.1% and Rotherham at 50.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.0% (Swindon 17.2%, Rotherham 5.7%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

42.1%Over 3.5 cards
22.0%Any red card
40.0%Most cards: Rotherham
48.1%Swindon over 1.5 cards
50.3%Rotherham over 1.5 cards
38.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 42.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 22.0%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianRotherham are the pick to collect more cards at 40.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 42.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
SwindonSwindon

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

RotherhamRotherham
Statistic
Swindon
Rotherham
fouls per game
9.5
13.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Swindon vs Rotherham?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 42.1% for Swindon vs Rotherham.
Will there be a red card in Swindon vs Rotherham?
The model rates a red card for either side at 22.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Swindon vs Rotherham?
The model rates Rotherham to pick up more cards at 40.0%, with a level count at 23.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoSwindon fixtures and statsRotherham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.