AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

League Two
CreweCreweWWWLL
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK
BarnetBarnetWWLDW

Crewe vs Barnet cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.8%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.2%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards47.2%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

H Blair

Assigned per API-Football, seen 28 Oct 2026, 18:09 UTC. An assignment can change before kickoff.

H Blair in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 7 3
Goals 2.43 Not available
Yellow cards 3.43 Not available
Red cards 0.14 Not available
Corners 10.1 Not available
Fouls 19.9 Not available
Both teams scored 57% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 57% Not available
Home wins 71% Not available
Latest 7 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
17 Oct 2026 Port Vale vs Chesterfield 1-0 1 No 5 0 10 20
26 Sep 2026 Swindon vs Accrington 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 13 12
15 Aug 2026 Newport County vs Rochdale 3-0 3 No 6 1 15 25
25 Apr 2026 Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 7 22
14 Apr 2026 Cheltenham vs Gillingham 2-1 3 Yes 1 0 12 17
28 Feb 2026 Crewe vs Tranmere 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 6 26
14 Feb 2026 Milton Keynes Dons vs Newport County 1-0 1 No 3 0 8 17

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Crewe vs Barnet. Slightly more cards are projected for Barnet for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 68.6% 31.4%
3.5 cards 47.2% 52.8%
4.5 cards 28.2% 71.8%
5.5 cards 14.8% 85.2%

Who picks up more cards

Crewe
36.0%
Level
22.1%
Barnet
41.9%

Team cards lines

Crewe

Over 1.5
50.6%
Over 2.5
24.2%

Barnet

Over 1.5
54.9%
Over 2.5
28.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Crewe's; Barnet gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Crewe line Crewe Barnet
-1.5 18.1% 81.9%
-0.5 36.0% 64.0%
+0.5 58.1% 41.9%
+1.5 77.5% 22.5%

Red card

Any red card19.4%
Crewe red card9.1%
Barnet red card11.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 76.2% 23.8%
22.5 fouls 62.5% 37.5%
24.5 fouls 47.5% 52.5%
CreweCrewe

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Crewe at home and Barnet away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BarnetBarnet
Statistic
Crewe
Barnet
Cards per game at this venue
·
1.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
2.7

Yellow cards per game
1.5
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
1.4

Matches with card data
4
7

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 47.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 68.6% for over 2.5 to 14.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.2%. Between the two sides, Barnet are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.9%, with a level count at 22.1%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Crewe over 1.5 cards sits at 50.6% and Barnet at 54.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.4% (Crewe 9.1%, Barnet 11.3%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

47.2%Over 3.5 cards
19.4%Any red card
41.9%Most cards: Barnet
50.6%Crewe over 1.5 cards
54.9%Barnet over 1.5 cards
62.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 47.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 19.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianBarnet are the pick to collect more cards at 41.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 47.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
CreweCrewe

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BarnetBarnet
Statistic
Crewe
Barnet
fouls per game
12.1
12.2

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Crewe vs Barnet?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 47.2% for Crewe vs Barnet.
Will there be a red card in Crewe vs Barnet?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Crewe vs Barnet?
The model rates Barnet to pick up more cards at 41.9%, with a level count at 22.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoCrewe fixtures and statsBarnet fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.