AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
SunderlandSunderlandDLLLL
Full time0-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1016:30UK11°C · Clear
LeedsLeedsDWDLD

Sunderland 0-0 Leeds cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.9%

Result

Sunderland0-0Leeds
3 yellow cardsSunderland 1, Leeds 2
0 red cardsSunderland 0, Leeds 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 53.1% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 90.6% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.1%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Stuart Attwell

Recorded match referee.

Stuart Attwell in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 264 5
Goals 2.74 1.80
Yellow cards 3.70 5.40
Red cards 0.13 0.40
Corners 10.2 9.2
Fouls 20.8 26.2
Both teams scored 53% 60%
Over 2.5 goals 53% 20%
Home wins 46% 20%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Sunderland vs Leeds 0-0 0 No 3 0 9 24
10 Oct 2026 Manchester United vs Tottenham 1-1 2 Yes 7 1 8 29
19 Sep 2026 Everton vs Ipswich 1-0 1 No 3 1 8 18
5 Sep 2026 Brighton vs Leeds 1-1 2 Yes 6 0 13 29
23 Aug 2026 Newcastle vs Liverpool 2-2 4 Yes 8 0 8 31
19 May 2026 Chelsea vs Tottenham 2-1 3 Yes 7 0 7 29
13 May 2026 Manchester City vs Crystal Palace 3-0 3 No 2 0 13 17
9 May 2026 Sunderland vs Manchester United 0-0 0 No 3 0 15 24
25 Apr 2026 West Ham vs Everton 2-1 3 Yes 7 0 7 20
18 Apr 2026 Tottenham vs Brighton 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 12 28

Stuart Attwell referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sunderland vs Leeds. It tips Leeds for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.5% 26.5%
3.5 cards 53.1% 46.9%
4.5 cards 33.7% 66.4%
5.5 cards 18.8% 81.2%

Who picks up more cards

Sunderland
36.3%
Level
21.2%
Leeds
42.5%

Team cards lines

Sunderland

Over 1.5
54.7%
Over 2.5
27.8%

Leeds

Over 1.5
59.1%
Over 2.5
32.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sunderland's; Leeds gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sunderland line Sunderland Leeds
-1.5 18.9% 81.1%
-0.5 36.3% 63.7%
+0.5 57.5% 42.5%
+1.5 76.4% 23.7%

Red card

Any red card9.4%
Sunderland red card6.4%
Leeds red card3.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 67.8% 32.2%
22.5 fouls 52.2% 47.8%
24.5 fouls 36.7% 63.3%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Sunderland T Bramall 2 3.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

SunderlandSunderland

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sunderland at home and Leeds away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LeedsLeeds
Statistic
Sunderland
Leeds
Yellow cards per game
·
1.4

First-half yellow cards per game
·
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
·
0.6

Matches with card data
2
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.5% for over 2.5 to 18.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.1%. Head to head on cards, Leeds are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 21.2%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Sunderland over 1.5 cards sits at 54.7% and Leeds at 59.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.4% (Sunderland 6.4%, Leeds 3.2%). Sunderland’s most frequent referee this season, T Bramall, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

53.1%Over 3.5 cards
9.4%Any red card
42.5%Most cards: Leeds
54.7%Sunderland over 1.5 cards
59.1%Leeds over 1.5 cards
52.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherT Bramall, Sunderland’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 9.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianLeeds are the pick to collect more cards at 42.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
SunderlandSunderland

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

LeedsLeeds
Statistic
Sunderland
Leeds
fouls per game
13.0
10.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Sunderland vs Leeds?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.1% for Sunderland vs Leeds.
Will there be a red card in Sunderland vs Leeds?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sunderland vs Leeds?
Before kickoff, the model rated Leeds to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Premier LeagueSunderland fixtures and statsLeeds fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.