AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Pro League
St TruidenSt TruidenWLLLL
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1115:00UK
Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-HeverleeLDWDD

Sint-Truiden vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.4%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for St Truiden vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven. Slightly more cards are projected for Oud-Heverlee Leuven for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.0% 27.0%
3.5 cards 52.6% 47.4%
4.5 cards 33.4% 66.6%
5.5 cards 18.7% 81.3%

Who picks up more cards

St Truiden
26.9%
Level
20.1%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
52.9%

Team cards lines

St Truiden

Over 1.5
46.3%
Over 2.5
20.8%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Over 1.5
65.2%
Over 2.5
38.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is St Truiden's; Oud-Heverlee Leuven gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

St Truiden line St Truiden Oud-Heverlee Leuven
-1.5 12.5% 87.5%
-0.5 26.9% 73.1%
+0.5 47.1% 52.9%
+1.5 67.6% 32.5%

Red card

Any red card18.6%
St Truiden red card9.2%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven red card10.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 61.1% 38.9%
22.5 fouls 46.5% 53.6%
24.5 fouls 32.7% 67.3%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
St Truiden B. Verbeke 2 4.5 2.5
St Truiden N. Verboomen 2 5.0 4.0
Oud-Heverlee Leuven J. Vergoote 2 3.0 1.5
Oud-Heverlee Leuven M. Allaerts 2 3.5 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

St TruidenSt Truiden

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means St Truiden at home and Oud-Heverlee Leuven away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-Heverlee
Statistic
St Truiden
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Yellow cards per game
2.1
2.4

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.6
1.6

Matches with card data
1
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 52.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.0% for over 2.5 to 18.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. Head to head on cards, Oud-Heverlee Leuven are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.9%, with a level count at 20.1%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, St Truiden over 1.5 cards sits at 46.3% and Oud-Heverlee Leuven at 65.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.6% (St Truiden 9.2%, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 10.4%). St Truiden’s most frequent referee this season, B. Verbeke, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

52.6%Over 3.5 cards
18.6%Any red card
52.9%Most cards: Oud-Heverlee Leuven
46.3%St Truiden over 1.5 cards
65.2%Oud-Heverlee Leuven over 1.5 cards
46.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherB. Verbeke, St Truiden’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianOud-Heverlee Leuven are the pick to collect more cards at 52.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
St TruidenSt Truiden

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-Heverlee
Statistic
St Truiden
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
fouls per game
10.7
11.9

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in St Truiden vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 52.6% for St Truiden vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven.
Will there be a red card in St Truiden vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in St Truiden vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven?
The model rates Oud-Heverlee Leuven to pick up more cards at 52.9%, with a level count at 20.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Pro LeagueSint-Truiden fixtures and statsOud-Heverlee Leuven fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.