AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Pro League
StandardStandardWLLLL
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1017:15UK
KortrijkKortrijkLLLWL

Standard vs Kortrijk cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.4%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.6%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards48.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Standard vs Kortrijk. The model leans toward Kortrijk for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 69.7% 30.3%
3.5 cards 48.6% 51.4%
4.5 cards 29.6% 70.4%
5.5 cards 15.9% 84.1%

Who picks up more cards

Standard
27.8%
Level
20.9%
Kortrijk
51.3%

Team cards lines

Standard

Over 1.5
44.4%
Over 2.5
19.4%

Kortrijk

Over 1.5
61.9%
Over 2.5
35.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Standard's; Kortrijk gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Standard line Standard Kortrijk
-1.5 12.8% 87.2%
-0.5 27.8% 72.2%
+0.5 48.7% 51.3%
+1.5 69.5% 30.5%

Red card

Any red card35.1%
Standard red card13.4%
Kortrijk red card25.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 58.2% 41.8%
22.5 fouls 43.5% 56.6%
24.5 fouls 30.0% 70.0%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Standard J. Vergoote 2 3.5 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

StandardStandard

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Standard at home and Kortrijk away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

KortrijkKortrijk
Statistic
Standard
Kortrijk
Yellow cards per game
1.4
2.0

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.8
1.6

Matches with card data
3
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.7% for over 2.5 to 15.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.6%. Between the two sides, Kortrijk are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.3%, with a level count at 20.9%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Standard over 1.5 cards sits at 44.4% and Kortrijk at 61.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 35.1% (Standard 13.4%, Kortrijk 25.1%). Standard’s most frequent referee this season, J. Vergoote, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

48.6%Over 3.5 cards
35.1%Any red card
51.3%Most cards: Kortrijk
44.4%Standard over 1.5 cards
61.9%Kortrijk over 1.5 cards
43.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 48.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ. Vergoote, Standard’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 35.1%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianKortrijk are the pick to collect more cards at 51.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
StandardStandard

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

KortrijkKortrijk
Statistic
Standard
Kortrijk
fouls per game
10.0
12.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Standard vs Kortrijk?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.6% for Standard vs Kortrijk.
Will there be a red card in Standard vs Kortrijk?
The model rates a red card for either side at 35.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Standard vs Kortrijk?
The model rates Kortrijk to pick up more cards at 51.3%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Pro LeagueStandard fixtures and statsKortrijk fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.