AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
Sparta RotterdamRotterdamDLLDW
Full time1-2Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1015:45UK
AjaxAjaxWWDDW

Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Ajax cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined58%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42%

Result

Sparta Rotterdam1-2Ajax
3 yellow cardsSparta Rotterdam 1, Ajax 2
0 red cardsSparta Rotterdam 0, Ajax 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 58.0% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 91.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards42.0%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Danny Makkelie

Recorded match referee.

Danny Makkelie in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 31 7
Goals 3.94 4.43
Yellow cards 2.97 2.57
Red cards 0.10 0.00
Corners 10.1 10.6
Fouls 21.7 21.7
Both teams scored 77% 86%
Over 2.5 goals 77% 86%
Home wins 42% 43%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax 1-2 3 Yes 3 0 8 22
18 Oct 2026 Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles 4-1 5 Yes 0 0 11 15
10 Oct 2026 Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar 2-0 2 No 4 0 13 27
13 Sep 2026 PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam 4-1 5 Yes 2 0 14 9
6 Sep 2026 Groningen vs Twente 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 10 15
23 Aug 2026 Cambuur vs Feyenoord 2-5 7 Yes 1 0 6 27
15 Aug 2026 Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar 1-4 5 Yes 6 0 12 37
10 May 2026 Excelsior vs Volendam 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 5 17
25 Apr 2026 Feyenoord vs Groningen 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 6 25
11 Apr 2026 Utrecht vs Telstar 4-1 5 Yes 3 0 12 14

Danny Makkelie referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax. It tips Ajax for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 63.8% 36.2%
3.5 cards 42.0% 58.0%
4.5 cards 24.0% 76.0%
5.5 cards 12.0% 88.0%

Who picks up more cards

Sparta Rotterdam
28.7%
Level
22.2%
Ajax
49.1%

Team cards lines

Sparta Rotterdam

Over 1.5
40.8%
Over 2.5
16.9%

Ajax

Over 1.5
56.3%
Over 2.5
29.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sparta Rotterdam's; Ajax gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sparta Rotterdam line Sparta Rotterdam Ajax
-1.5 12.8% 87.2%
-0.5 28.7% 71.3%
+0.5 50.9% 49.1%
+1.5 72.2% 27.8%

Red card

Any red card8.6%
Sparta Rotterdam red card4.8%
Ajax red card4.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 48.5% 51.5%
22.5 fouls 33.4% 66.6%
24.5 fouls 21.0% 79.0%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Ajax J. van der Laan 2 4.0 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sparta Rotterdam at home and Ajax away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

AjaxAjax
Statistic
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
1.3

Matches with card data
1
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 42.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 63.8% for over 2.5 to 12.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.0%. On the card count, Ajax are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.1%, with a level count at 22.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 cards sits at 40.8% and Ajax at 56.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.6% (Sparta Rotterdam 4.8%, Ajax 4.0%). Ajax’s most frequent referee this season, J. van der Laan, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

42.0%Over 3.5 cards
8.6%Any red card
49.1%Most cards: Ajax
40.8%Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 cards
56.3%Ajax over 1.5 cards
33.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 42.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ. van der Laan, Ajax’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.6%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianAjax are the pick to collect more cards at 49.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

AjaxAjax
Statistic
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax
fouls per game
·
9.2

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 42.0% for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax.
Will there be a red card in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Before kickoff, the model rated Ajax to pick up more cards at 49.1%, with a level count at 22.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.