Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Ajax corners: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Sparta Rotterdam1-2Ajax
We called Over 9.5 at 59.7% and it missed (8 in the match).
Model read
A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Moderate
Over 9.5 corners59.7%
Corners
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Sparta Rotterdam.
Total corners
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| 8.5 corners | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 27.7% | 72.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Sparta RotterdamAjaxTeam corners lines
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax
Corner handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sparta Rotterdam's; Ajax gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Sparta Rotterdam line | Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| -0.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| +0.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| +1.5 | 69.4% | 30.6% |
Corner trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sparta Rotterdam at home and Ajax away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 59.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 80.5% for over 7.5 to 27.7% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.3%. Between the two sides, Sparta Rotterdam are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 50.6%, with a level count at 9.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
By team, Sparta Rotterdam over 4.5 corners sits at 61.4% and Ajax at 53.1%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many corners in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Which team will win the corner count in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Eredivisie, Corners
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
