Primeira Liga
Estrela vs 
Academico Viseu Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 11.8% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Estrela have averaged 2.4 scored and 2.0 conceded, Academico Viseu 1.0 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 55.1% for over 2.5 and 78.9% for at least two goals. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
| 1-2 | 6.6% |
| 0-0 | 6.2% |
| 0-1 | 6.0% |
| 2-2 | 5.6% |
Score probability grid
| Estrela \ Academico Viseu | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | · | · |
| 1 | 9% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Estrela goals, columns = Academico Viseu. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
57.2%Both Teams to Score55.1%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 55.1% for three or more goals and 78.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Estrela favoured at 49.4%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
The model's most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Academico Viseu is 1-1 at 11.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Primeira Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
