Primeira Liga
Guimaraes vs 
Moreirense Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.0% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Guimaraes have averaged 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, Moreirense 1.0 and 2.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.8% for over 2.5 and 72.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |
| 0-0 | 8.8% |
| 0-1 | 7.8% |
| 1-2 | 6.4% |
| 2-2 | 4.7% |
Score probability grid
| Guimaraes \ Moreirense | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 3 | 4% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Guimaraes goals, columns = Moreirense. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
50.2%Both Teams to Score45.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 45.8% for three or more goals and 72.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Guimaraes favoured at 46.8%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Guimaraes 3 · 1 draws · Moreirense 1 · 1.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
The model's most likely scoreline for Guimaraes vs Moreirense is 1-1 at 13.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Primeira Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
