Sp Braga 1-3 Sporting CP cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Sp Braga1-3Sp Lisbon
We called Over 3.5 at 72.0% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 77.8% and it landed (0 in the match).
Model read
A clear lean on the model's numbers.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Strong
Over 3.5 cards72.0%
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sp Braga vs Sp Lisbon. Slightly more cards are projected for Sp Lisbon for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 86.6% | 13.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 36.6% | 63.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Sp BragaSp LisbonTeam cards lines
Sp Braga
Sp Lisbon
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sp Braga's; Sp Lisbon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Sp Braga line | Sp Braga | Sp Lisbon |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.4% | 78.6% |
| -0.5 | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| +0.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| +1.5 | 72.9% | 27.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 77.0% | 23.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 52.4% | 47.6% |
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sp Braga at home and Sp Lisbon away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 72.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 86.6% for over 2.5 to 36.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.1%. On the card count, Sp Lisbon are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.3%, with a level count at 18.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Sp Braga over 1.5 cards sits at 68.0% and Sp Lisbon at 72.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.2% (Sp Braga 13.8%, Sp Lisbon 9.8%). This season Sp Braga have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Sp Lisbon 2.7.
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Sp Braga vs Sp Lisbon?
Will there be a red card in Sp Braga vs Sp Lisbon?
Which team will pick up more cards in Sp Braga vs Sp Lisbon?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
