SociedadSociedadWWWWL
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VallecanoVallecanoWDDLWReal Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano corners prediction
Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 9.5 corners54.3%
Corners
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Sociedad.
Total corners
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| 9.5 corners | 54.3% | 45.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| 11.5 corners | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| 12.5 corners | 22.7% | 77.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Sociedad
VallecanoTeam corners lines
Sociedad
Vallecano
Corner handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sociedad's; Vallecano gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Sociedad line | Sociedad | Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 27.9% | 72.1% |
| -1.5 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| -0.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| +0.5 | 68.6% | 31.4% |
Corner trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sociedad at home and Vallecano away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 24,099 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 4 Nov 2026.
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 54.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 76.9% for over 7.5 to 22.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.3%. Head to head on corners, Sociedad are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 58.5%, with a level count at 10.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.
In-depth analysis
By team, Sociedad over 4.5 corners sits at 64.0% and Vallecano at 43.5%. This season Sociedad have averaged 6.6 corners won a game and Vallecano 5.2.
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many corners in Sociedad vs Vallecano?
Which team will win the corner count in Sociedad vs Vallecano?
How many corners do Sociedad and Vallecano average this season?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
