AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 3 Nov 2026

La Liga
SociedadSociedadWWWWL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1115:15UK20°C · Cloudy
VallecanoVallecanoWDDLW

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined69.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined30.4%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards69.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sociedad vs Vallecano. It tips Vallecano for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 84.8% 15.2%
3.5 cards 69.6% 30.4%
4.5 cards 51.8% 48.2%
5.5 cards 34.9% 65.1%

Who picks up more cards

Sociedad
32.9%
Level
18.0%
Vallecano
49.1%

Team cards lines

Sociedad

Over 1.5
62.7%
Over 2.5
36.5%

Vallecano

Over 1.5
72.8%
Over 2.5
48.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sociedad's; Vallecano gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sociedad line Sociedad Vallecano
-1.5 18.3% 81.7%
-0.5 32.9% 67.1%
+0.5 50.9% 49.1%
+1.5 68.6% 31.5%

Red card

Any red card29.1%
Sociedad red card16.7%
Vallecano red card15.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 77.2% 22.8%
22.5 fouls 65.0% 35.0%
24.5 fouls 51.4% 48.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Vallecano Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid 2 4.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

SociedadSociedad

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sociedad at home and Vallecano away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

VallecanoVallecano
Statistic
Sociedad
Vallecano
Yellow cards per game
2.1
2.5

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
0.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.3
2.0

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
50.0%

Matches with card data
5
6
Red cards this season
·
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
51,093Matches graded

In 10,269 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 3 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 55.7%✓ 66.7%✓ 60.8%✓ 59.2%✓ 51.3%✓ 66.0%✗ 69.8%✓ 66.7%✓ 73.4%✗ 74.9%
8 of 10 recent calls hit.
Newcastle vs Everton2026-11-02Over 3.5 55.7%Hit
La Coruna vs Osasuna2026-11-02Over 3.5 66.7%Hit
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina2026-11-02Over 3.5 60.8%Hit
Atalanta vs Parma2026-11-02Under 3.5 59.2%Hit
Lorient vs Brest2026-11-02Under 3.5 51.3%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 69.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 84.8% for over 2.5 to 34.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.8%. Between the two sides, Vallecano are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.1%, with a level count at 18.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Sociedad over 1.5 cards sits at 62.7% and Vallecano at 72.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 29.1% (Sociedad 16.7%, Vallecano 15.0%). Vallecano’s most frequent referee this season, Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

69.6%Over 3.5 cards
29.1%Any red card
49.1%Most cards: Vallecano
62.7%Sociedad over 1.5 cards
72.8%Vallecano over 1.5 cards
65.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 69.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherManuel Jesus Orellana Cid, Vallecano’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 29.1%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianVallecano are the pick to collect more cards at 49.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
SociedadSociedad

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

VallecanoVallecano
Statistic
Sociedad
Vallecano
cards per game
·
3.7

fouls per game
12.5
12.9

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Sociedad vs Vallecano?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 69.6% for Sociedad vs Vallecano.
Will there be a red card in Sociedad vs Vallecano?
The model rates a red card for either side at 29.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sociedad vs Vallecano?
The model rates Vallecano to pick up more cards at 49.1%, with a level count at 18.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

La LigaReal Sociedad fixtures and statsRayo Vallecano fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.