AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 3 Nov 2026

La Liga
ValenciaValenciaLDDLW
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1120:00UK17°C · Cloudy
Real MadridReal MadridLWWWW

Valencia vs Real Madrid corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined50.3%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined49.7%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners49.7%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Valencia.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 73.4% 26.6%
8.5 corners 61.9% 38.1%
9.5 corners 49.7% 50.3%
10.5 corners 38.0% 62.0%
11.5 corners 27.7% 72.3%
12.5 corners 19.2% 80.8%

Who wins the corner count

Valencia
48.8%
Level
10.9%
Real Madrid
40.3%

Team corners lines

Valencia

Over 3.5
70.5%
Over 4.5
54.6%
Over 5.5
39.2%

Real Madrid

Over 3.5
64.9%
Over 4.5
48.1%
Over 5.5
32.9%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Valencia's; Real Madrid gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Valencia line Valencia Real Madrid
-1.5 38.0% 62.0%
-0.5 48.8% 51.2%
+0.5 59.8% 40.3%
+1.5 69.9% 30.1%
ValenciaValencia

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Valencia at home and Real Madrid away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Real MadridReal Madrid
Statistic
Valencia
Real Madrid
Corners won per game at this venue
4.2
6.0

Corners conceded per game at this venue
4.7
3.5

First-half corners won per game
1.5
3.4

Second-half corners won per game
2.6
3.0

Matches with more corners than the opponent
27.3%
63.6%

Matches with corner data
11
11

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0097Calibration error
51,092Matches graded

In 22,010 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 3 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 54.2%✗ 52.9%✓ 60.9%✗ 54.6%✗ 52.1%✗ 50.1%✓ 57.5%✓ 57.1%✓ 63.9%✓ 62.0%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Newcastle vs Everton2026-11-02Over 9.5 54.2%Miss
La Coruna vs Osasuna2026-11-02Under 9.5 52.9%Miss
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina2026-11-02Under 9.5 60.9%Hit
Atalanta vs Parma2026-11-02Under 9.5 54.6%Miss
Lorient vs Brest2026-11-02Under 9.5 52.1%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 49.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 73.4% for over 7.5 to 19.2% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.7%. Head to head on corners, Valencia are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 48.8%, with a level count at 10.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Valencia over 4.5 corners sits at 54.6% and Real Madrid at 48.1%. This season Valencia have averaged 4.0 corners won a game and Real Madrid 6.4.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

49.7%Over 9.5 corners
48.8%Most corners: Valencia
54.6%Valencia over 4.5 corners
48.1%Real Madrid over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.7% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderValencia are the pick to win the corner count at 48.8%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 49.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
ValenciaValencia

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Real MadridReal Madrid
Statistic
Valencia
Real Madrid
corners won per game
4.0
6.4

corners conceded per game
5.0
4.0

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 49.7% for Valencia vs Real Madrid.
Which team will win the corner count in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
The model rates Valencia to win the corner count at 48.8%, with a level count at 10.9%.
How many corners do Valencia and Real Madrid average this season?
Valencia have won 4.0 corners a game this season and Real Madrid 6.4.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

La LigaValencia fixtures and statsReal Madrid fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.