AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

League Two
ShrewsburyShrewsburyWLWWD
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK
GillinghamGillinghamDWLDL

Shrewsbury vs Gillingham cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.1%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards56.9%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Neil Hair

Assigned per API-Football, seen 28 Oct 2026, 10:05 UTC. An assignment can change before kickoff.

Neil Hair in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 89 3
Goals 2.66 Not available
Yellow cards 3.39 Not available
Red cards 0.18 Not available
Corners 10.3 Not available
Fouls 23.1 Not available
Both teams scored 62% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 51% Not available
Home wins 44% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
17 Oct 2026 Newport County vs York 1-1 2 Yes 5 1 6 22
19 Sep 2026 Salford vs Swindon 1-0 1 No 3 0 17 16
12 Sep 2026 Barnet vs Accrington 2-1 3 Yes 6 1 10 28
2 May 2026 Crewe vs Cambridge 0-0 0 No 4 0 14 32
11 Apr 2026 Newport County vs Harrogate 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 15 22
7 Feb 2026 Fleetwood Town vs Bromley 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 4 22
31 Jan 2026 Shrewsbury vs Barnet 0-0 0 No 4 0 9 24
17 Jan 2026 Oldham vs Cheltenham 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 11 27
26 Dec 2025 Gillingham vs Cambridge 1-1 2 Yes 1 0 11 21
4 Oct 2025 Barnet vs Accrington 2-0 2 No 4 0 8 19

Neil Hair referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Shrewsbury vs Gillingham. The model leans toward Gillingham for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 76.4% 23.6%
3.5 cards 56.9% 43.1%
4.5 cards 37.4% 62.6%
5.5 cards 21.7% 78.3%

Who picks up more cards

Shrewsbury
37.1%
Level
20.6%
Gillingham
42.2%

Team cards lines

Shrewsbury

Over 1.5
57.8%
Over 2.5
30.7%

Gillingham

Over 1.5
61.3%
Over 2.5
34.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Shrewsbury's; Gillingham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Shrewsbury line Shrewsbury Gillingham
-1.5 19.9% 80.1%
-0.5 37.1% 62.9%
+0.5 57.8% 42.2%
+1.5 76.2% 23.8%

Red card

Any red card15.4%
Shrewsbury red card9.3%
Gillingham red card6.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 72.8% 27.2%
22.5 fouls 58.4% 41.6%
24.5 fouls 43.2% 56.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Shrewsbury I Searle 2 3.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

ShrewsburyShrewsbury

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Shrewsbury at home and Gillingham away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

GillinghamGillingham
Statistic
Shrewsbury
Gillingham
Cards per game at this venue
2.5
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.3
·

Yellow cards per game
2.8
2.6

First-half yellow cards per game
1.0
1.1

Second-half yellow cards per game
2.1
1.5

Matches with more cards than the opponent
77.8%
·

Matches with card data
9
7
Red cards this season
3
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 56.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 76.4% for over 2.5 to 21.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.9%. Head to head on cards, Gillingham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.2%, with a level count at 20.6%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Shrewsbury over 1.5 cards sits at 57.8% and Gillingham at 61.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.4% (Shrewsbury 9.3%, Gillingham 6.7%). Shrewsbury’s most frequent referee this season, I Searle, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

56.9%Over 3.5 cards
15.4%Any red card
42.2%Most cards: Gillingham
57.8%Shrewsbury over 1.5 cards
61.3%Gillingham over 1.5 cards
58.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherI Searle, Shrewsbury’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianGillingham are the pick to collect more cards at 42.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
ShrewsburyShrewsbury

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GillinghamGillingham
Statistic
Shrewsbury
Gillingham
cards per game
2.8
·

fouls per game
14.7
13.4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Shrewsbury vs Gillingham?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 56.9% for Shrewsbury vs Gillingham.
Will there be a red card in Shrewsbury vs Gillingham?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Shrewsbury vs Gillingham?
The model rates Gillingham to pick up more cards at 42.2%, with a level count at 20.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoShrewsbury fixtures and statsGillingham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.