La Liga
Alaves vs 
Ath Madrid Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 61.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 79.1% for over 2.5 to 26.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.8%. Head to head on cards, Ath Madrid are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.8%, with a level count at 19.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 79.1% | 20.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 26.9% | 73.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
59.7%
33.8%
64.4%
38.8%
Card handicap
| Alaves line | Alaves | Ath Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.7% | 79.3% |
| -0.5 | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| +0.5 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| +1.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 49.4% | 50.6% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Alaves cards per game13.6Alaves fouls per game1.9Ath Madrid cards per game12.3Ath Madrid fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Alaves vs Ath Madrid. The model leans toward Ath Madrid for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
61.4%Over 3.5 cards20.2%Any red card59.7%Alaves over 1.5 cards64.4%Ath Madrid over 1.5 cards63.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Alaves over 1.5 cards sits at 59.7% and Ath Madrid at 64.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.2% (Alaves 6.8%, Ath Madrid 14.5%). This season Alaves have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Ath Madrid 1.9.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 61.4% for Alaves vs Ath Madrid.
Will there be a red card in Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
The model rates a red card for either side at 20.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
The model rates Ath Madrid to pick up more cards at 43.8%, with a level count at 19.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,143 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
