La Liga
Vallecano vs 
Ath Bilbao Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 61.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 79.4% for over 2.5 to 27.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.3%. Between the two sides, Ath Bilbao are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.5%, with a level count at 19.3%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 79.4% | 20.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 27.3% | 72.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
61.7%
35.8%
63.2%
37.4%
Card handicap
| Vallecano line | Vallecano | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| -0.5 | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| +0.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| +1.5 | 75.6% | 24.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 46.9% | 53.1% |
This season (2026/27)
2.7Vallecano cards per game13.4Vallecano fouls per game2.2Ath Bilbao cards per game11.2Ath Bilbao fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao. Slightly more cards are projected for Ath Bilbao for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
61.8%Over 3.5 cards21.8%Any red card61.7%Vallecano over 1.5 cards63.2%Ath Bilbao over 1.5 cards60.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Vallecano over 1.5 cards sits at 61.7% and Ath Bilbao at 63.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.8% (Vallecano 10.5%, Ath Bilbao 12.6%). This season Vallecano have averaged 2.7 cards a game and Ath Bilbao 2.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 61.8% for Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao.
Will there be a red card in Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates a red card for either side at 21.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates Ath Bilbao to pick up more cards at 41.5%, with a level count at 19.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,143 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
