AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

League Two
SalfordSalfordWWWWW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK
ExeterExeterWWDWW

Salford vs Exeter cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.2%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.8%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards49.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Oliver Langford

Assigned per API-Football, seen 28 Oct 2026, 14:07 UTC. An assignment can change before kickoff.

Oliver Langford in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 330 7
Goals 2.55 2.71
Yellow cards 3.24 4.00
Red cards 0.13 0.14
Corners 10.2 9.7
Fouls 21.8 21.9
Both teams scored 52% 43%
Over 2.5 goals 46% 71%
Home wins 39% 57%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
17 Oct 2026 Derby vs StokeChampionship 0-1 1 No 1 0 10 22
14 Oct 2026 Portsmouth vs Sheffield UnitedChampionship 3-2 5 Yes 6 1 16 13
18 Sep 2026 Bristol City vs WatfordChampionship 1-0 1 No 7 0 7 26
5 Sep 2026 West Ham vs DerbyChampionship 3-0 3 No 2 0 11 22
2 Sep 2026 Millwall vs WrexhamChampionship 0-3 3 No 3 0 3 25
29 Aug 2026 York vs Exeter 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 12 22
15 Aug 2026 Stoke vs SwanseaChampionship 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 9 23
2 May 2026 Wrexham vs MiddlesbroughChampionship 2-2 4 Yes 0 0 9 16
18 Apr 2026 Swansea vs SouthamptonChampionship 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 16 10
3 Apr 2026 Oxford vs HullChampionship 1-1 2 Yes 1 0 6 20

Oliver Langford referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Salford vs Exeter. Slightly more cards are projected for Exeter for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.8% 29.2%
3.5 cards 49.8% 50.2%
4.5 cards 30.6% 69.4%
5.5 cards 16.5% 83.5%

Who picks up more cards

Salford
35.8%
Level
21.7%
Exeter
42.5%

Team cards lines

Salford

Over 1.5
52.2%
Over 2.5
25.6%

Exeter

Over 1.5
57.1%
Over 2.5
30.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Salford's; Exeter gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Salford line Salford Exeter
-1.5 18.3% 81.7%
-0.5 35.8% 64.2%
+0.5 57.5% 42.5%
+1.5 76.7% 23.3%

Red card

Any red card4.4%
Salford red card2.3%
Exeter red card2.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 76.8% 23.2%
22.5 fouls 63.2% 36.8%
24.5 fouls 48.3% 51.7%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Salford D Whitestone 2 7.0 3.5
Salford I Searle 2 1.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

SalfordSalford

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Salford at home and Exeter away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ExeterExeter
Statistic
Salford
Exeter
Cards per game at this venue
0.6
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.8
·

Yellow cards per game
1.6
1.7

First-half yellow cards per game
0.5
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.9
0.9

Matches with more cards than the opponent
11.1%
·

Matches with card data
9
5
Red cards this season
1
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.8% for over 2.5 to 16.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.8%. Head to head on cards, Exeter are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 21.7%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Salford over 1.5 cards sits at 52.2% and Exeter at 57.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 4.4% (Salford 2.3%, Exeter 2.2%). Salford’s most frequent referee this season, D Whitestone, has averaged 7.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

49.8%Over 3.5 cards
4.4%Any red card
42.5%Most cards: Exeter
52.2%Salford over 1.5 cards
57.1%Exeter over 1.5 cards
63.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherD Whitestone, Salford’s most frequent referee this season, averages 7.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 4.4%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianExeter are the pick to collect more cards at 42.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
SalfordSalford

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ExeterExeter
Statistic
Salford
Exeter
cards per game
1.3
·

fouls per game
10.6
10.8

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Salford vs Exeter?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.8% for Salford vs Exeter.
Will there be a red card in Salford vs Exeter?
The model rates a red card for either side at 4.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Salford vs Exeter?
The model rates Exeter to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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League TwoSalford fixtures and statsExeter fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.