Ligue 1
Rennes vs 
Auxerre Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.9% for over 2.5 to 19.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.7%. On the card count, Auxerre are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.3%, with a level count at 21.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.2% | 80.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
53.8%
27.0%
60.7%
33.6%
Card handicap
| Rennes line | Rennes | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.8% | 82.2% |
| -0.5 | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| +0.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| +1.5 | 74.9% | 25.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 49.5% | 50.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Rennes cards per game13.0Rennes fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rennes vs Auxerre. Slightly more cards are projected for Auxerre for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
53.7%Over 3.5 cards23.6%Any red card53.8%Rennes over 1.5 cards60.7%Auxerre over 1.5 cards63.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Rennes over 1.5 cards sits at 53.8% and Auxerre at 60.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.6% (Rennes 6.6%, Auxerre 18.2%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Rennes vs Auxerre?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.7% for Rennes vs Auxerre.
Will there be a red card in Rennes vs Auxerre?
The model rates a red card for either side at 23.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rennes vs Auxerre?
The model rates Auxerre to pick up more cards at 44.3%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
