Ligue 1
Monaco vs 
Toulouse Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 49.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.7% for over 2.5 to 16.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.7%. Head to head on cards, Toulouse are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.7%, with a level count at 21.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.4% | 83.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.9%
25.4%
57.1%
30.0%
Card handicap
| Monaco line | Monaco | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.1% | 81.9% |
| -0.5 | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| +0.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| +1.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 48.0% | 52.0% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Monaco cards per game10.5Monaco fouls per game1.3Toulouse cards per game16.8Toulouse fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Monaco vs Toulouse. The model leans toward Toulouse for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
49.7%Over 3.5 cards16.8%Any red card51.9%Monaco over 1.5 cards57.1%Toulouse over 1.5 cards62.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Monaco over 1.5 cards sits at 51.9% and Toulouse at 57.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.8% (Monaco 7.1%, Toulouse 10.5%). This season Monaco have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Toulouse 1.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Monaco vs Toulouse?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.7% for Monaco vs Toulouse.
Will there be a red card in Monaco vs Toulouse?
The model rates a red card for either side at 16.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Monaco vs Toulouse?
The model rates Toulouse to pick up more cards at 42.7%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
