Ligue 1
Brest vs 
Angers Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 41.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 64.0% for over 2.5 to 11.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.9%. Between the two sides, Angers are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.2%, with a level count at 22.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 23.7% | 76.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 11.7% | 88.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
46.3%
20.7%
51.8%
25.3%
Card handicap
| Brest line | Brest | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.8% | 83.2% |
| -0.5 | 34.8% | 65.1% |
| +0.5 | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| +1.5 | 77.9% | 22.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 46.6% | 53.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2Brest cards per game15.0Brest fouls per game1.8Angers cards per game10.8Angers fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Brest vs Angers. It tips Angers for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
41.9%Over 3.5 cards14.9%Any red card46.3%Brest over 1.5 cards51.8%Angers over 1.5 cards60.8%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Brest over 1.5 cards sits at 46.3% and Angers at 51.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.9% (Brest 8.8%, Angers 6.7%). This season Brest have averaged 1.2 cards a game and Angers 1.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Brest vs Angers?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 41.9% for Brest vs Angers.
Will there be a red card in Brest vs Angers?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Brest vs Angers?
The model rates Angers to pick up more cards at 42.2%, with a level count at 22.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
