Ligue 1
Lens vs 
Lyon Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 54.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.5% for over 2.5 to 19.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. On the card count, Lens are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 20.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.7% | 80.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
60.6%
33.6%
54.9%
28.0%
Card handicap
| Lens line | Lens | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| -0.5 | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| +0.5 | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| +1.5 | 81.5% | 18.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 77.0% | 23.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 50.4% | 49.6% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lens vs Lyon. The model leans toward Lens for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
54.4%Over 3.5 cards29.2%Any red card60.6%Lens over 1.5 cards54.9%Lyon over 1.5 cards64.3%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Lens over 1.5 cards sits at 60.6% and Lyon at 54.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 29.2% (Lens 17.4%, Lyon 14.3%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Lens vs Lyon?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 54.4% for Lens vs Lyon.
Will there be a red card in Lens vs Lyon?
The model rates a red card for either side at 29.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lens vs Lyon?
The model rates Lens to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,114 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
