Rennes vs Auxerre prediction & probabilities (2026-10-11)

Ligue 1

Rennes vs Auxerre Both Teams to Score

2026-10-11 · 16:15
Both Teams to Score59.8%Both teams to score · Yes
Best predictionBoth teams to score · Yes · 59.8%A moderate lean, nothing emphatic. Calibrated, not a tip.
60%

model probability

ConvictionModerate

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Both teams to score · Yes at 59.8%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Rennes have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded, Auxerre 1.4 and 2.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 59.1% for over 2.5 and 81.5% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Rennes have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Auxerre in 4 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Both Teams to Score

★ ModelYes59.8%

No40.2%

Over 2.5 · context59.1%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

Rennes scored

1.6

Rennes conceded

1.8

Auxerre scored

1.4

Auxerre conceded

2.4

Each team to score

Rennes to score84.2%

Rennes 2+ goals55.1%

Auxerre to score70.4%

Auxerre 2+ goals34.3%

By half

Both score in 1st half25.5%

Both score in 2nd half30.5%

This season (2026/27)

60.0%Rennes BTTS rate
20.0%Rennes clean sheets
1.6Rennes goals scored per game
80.0%Auxerre BTTS rate
20.0%Auxerre clean sheets
1.4Auxerre goals scored per game

Goals distribution

How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.

5.2%

0

13.3%

1

22.4%

2

22.4%

3

17.1%

4

18.3%

5+

In-depth analysis

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

53.2%Favoured: Rennes
59.8%Both Teams to Score
59.1%Over 2.5 goals

Looking at totals, the model sees 59.1% for three or more goals and 81.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Rennes favoured at 53.2%, a competitive game tends to open up.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 59.8% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianReads an open, higher-tempo game from the 59.1% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutRennes are the model’s pick on the result at 53.2%, game state shapes how this market plays out.

Match outlook

Rennes53.2%

Draw23.4%

Auxerre23.4%

The model leans Rennes to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

E

Esteban LepaulRennes · 2.79 shots/90
To score 39.1%

T

Theo BairAuxerre · 3 shots/90
To score 6.7%

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

RennesDWWWL
AuxerreLLLWW

Last 5 meetings: Rennes 1 · 2 draws · Auxerre 2 · 2.4 goals/game.

Recent trends

RennesBTTS 3/5Over 2.5 4/5
AuxerreBTTS 4/5Over 2.5 4/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Will both teams score in Rennes vs Auxerre?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 59.8% for Rennes vs Auxerre.

Will Rennes score against Auxerre?
The model rates Rennes to score at 84.2% and Auxerre to score at 70.4%.

How often have Rennes seen both teams score recently?
Rennes have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Auxerre in 4 of 5.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0231Calibration error
55,617Matches graded

In 26,755 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 61.8%✗ 54.5%✗ 51.3%✓ 55.8%✗ 67.4%✗ 62.0%✓ 64.5%✓ 60.1%✓ 59.0%✓ 55.0%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool2026-09-20Yes 61.8%Miss
Leeds vs Crystal Palace2026-09-20Yes 54.5%Miss
Manchester City vs Sunderland2026-09-20No 51.3%Miss
Fulham vs Manchester United2026-09-20Yes 55.8%Hit
Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig2026-09-20Yes 67.4%Miss

More Ligue 1, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

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Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.