Ligue 1
Lorient vs 
Paris FC Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 46.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 67.6% for over 2.5 to 14.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.0%. Head to head on cards, Paris FC are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.7%, with a level count at 21.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.1% | 72.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.0% | 86.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
42.1%
17.5%
60.6%
33.6%
Card handicap
| Lorient line | Lorient | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.0% | 88.0% |
| -0.5 | 27.0% | 73.0% |
| +0.5 | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| +1.5 | 69.7% | 30.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 34.5% | 65.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Lorient cards per game9.2Lorient fouls per game1.6Paris FC cards per game13.8Paris FC fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lorient vs Paris FC. Slightly more cards are projected for Paris FC for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
46.0%Over 3.5 cards12.5%Any red card42.1%Lorient over 1.5 cards60.6%Paris FC over 1.5 cards48.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Lorient over 1.5 cards sits at 42.1% and Paris FC at 60.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.5% (Lorient 1.9%, Paris FC 10.8%). This season Lorient have averaged 1.0 cards a game and Paris FC 1.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Lorient vs Paris FC?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 46.0% for Lorient vs Paris FC.
Will there be a red card in Lorient vs Paris FC?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lorient vs Paris FC?
The model rates Paris FC to pick up more cards at 51.7%, with a level count at 21.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
