AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
Pau FCPau FCLDDLW
Full time3-2Fri, 9 Oct 20269/1019:00UK
LavalLavalDLLLD

Pau FC 3-2 Laval cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.5%

Result

Pau FC3-2Laval
4 yellow cardsPau FC 2, Laval 2
1 red cardsPau FC 0, Laval 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 55.5% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 78.4% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.5%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Pau FC vs Laval. Slightly more cards are projected for Laval for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.3% 24.7%
3.5 cards 55.5% 44.5%
4.5 cards 35.9% 64.1%
5.5 cards 20.6% 79.4%

Who picks up more cards

Pau FC
38.0%
Level
20.9%
Laval
41.1%

Team cards lines

Pau FC

Over 1.5
57.5%
Over 2.5
30.5%

Laval

Over 1.5
59.7%
Over 2.5
32.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Pau FC's; Laval gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Pau FC line Pau FC Laval
-1.5 20.4% 79.6%
-0.5 38.0% 62.0%
+0.5 58.9% 41.1%
+1.5 77.2% 22.8%

Red card

Any red card21.6%
Pau FC red card6.9%
Laval red card15.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 90.3% 9.7%
22.5 fouls 82.1% 17.9%
24.5 fouls 71.0% 29.0%
Pau FCPau FC

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Pau FC at home and Laval away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LavalLaval
Statistic
Pau FC
Laval
Cards per game at this venue
2.3
2.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.5
2.3

Yellow cards per game
2.1
2.0

Red cards this season
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 55.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.3% for over 2.5 to 20.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.5%. Between the two sides, Laval are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 20.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Pau FC over 1.5 cards sits at 57.5% and Laval at 59.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.6% (Pau FC 6.9%, Laval 15.8%). This season Pau FC have averaged 2.1 cards a game and Laval 2.1.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

55.5%Over 3.5 cards
21.6%Any red card
41.1%Most cards: Laval
57.5%Pau FC over 1.5 cards
59.7%Laval over 1.5 cards
82.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 21.6%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianLaval are the pick to collect more cards at 41.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 55.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Pau FCPau FC

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

LavalLaval
Statistic
Pau FC
Laval
cards per game
2.1
2.1

fouls per game
15.3
13.4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Pau FC vs Laval?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.5% for Pau FC vs Laval.
Will there be a red card in Pau FC vs Laval?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 21.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Pau FC vs Laval?
Before kickoff, the model rated Laval to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Ligue 2Pau FC fixtures and statsLaval fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.