AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
AnnecyAnnecyLLWLW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1013:00UK
MontpellierMontpellierWDWWW

Annecy vs Montpellier cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.2%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Annecy vs Montpellier. It tips Annecy for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.5% 27.5%
3.5 cards 51.8% 48.2%
4.5 cards 32.5% 67.5%
5.5 cards 17.9% 82.1%

Who picks up more cards

Annecy
39.7%
Level
21.4%
Montpellier
38.9%

Team cards lines

Annecy

Over 1.5
56.4%
Over 2.5
29.4%

Montpellier

Over 1.5
55.8%
Over 2.5
28.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Annecy's; Montpellier gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Annecy line Annecy Montpellier
-1.5 21.3% 78.7%
-0.5 39.7% 60.3%
+0.5 61.1% 38.9%
+1.5 79.3% 20.7%

Red card

Any red card21.5%
Annecy red card15.2%
Montpellier red card7.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 92.6% 7.4%
22.5 fouls 85.7% 14.3%
24.5 fouls 75.7% 24.3%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Montpellier R. Landry 2 4.5 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

AnnecyAnnecy

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Annecy at home and Montpellier away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MontpellierMontpellier
Statistic
Annecy
Montpellier
Cards per game at this venue
·
1.5

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
2.3

Yellow cards per game
1.7
2.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.9
1.6

Matches with more cards than the opponent
33.3%
16.7%

Matches with card data
6
6
Red cards this season
1
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 51.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 72.5% for over 2.5 to 17.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.8%. Between the two sides, Annecy are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.7%, with a level count at 21.4%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Annecy over 1.5 cards sits at 56.4% and Montpellier at 55.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.5% (Annecy 15.2%, Montpellier 7.4%). Montpellier’s most frequent referee this season, R. Landry, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Annecy have averaged 1.5 cards a game and Montpellier 1.7.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

51.8%Over 3.5 cards
21.5%Any red card
39.7%Most cards: Annecy
56.4%Annecy over 1.5 cards
55.8%Montpellier over 1.5 cards
85.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherR. Landry, Montpellier’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 21.5%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianAnnecy are the pick to collect more cards at 39.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
AnnecyAnnecy

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MontpellierMontpellier
Statistic
Annecy
Montpellier
cards per game
1.5
1.7

fouls per game
13.1
17.0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Annecy vs Montpellier?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.8% for Annecy vs Montpellier.
Will there be a red card in Annecy vs Montpellier?
The model rates a red card for either side at 21.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Annecy vs Montpellier?
The model rates Annecy to pick up more cards at 39.7%, with a level count at 21.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 2, Cards

Grenoble vs Dijon cards predictionLaval vs Boulogne cards predictionMetz vs Pau FC cards predictionNantes vs Clermont cards predictionRodez vs Dunkerque cards predictionReims vs Sochaux cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Ligue 2Annecy fixtures and statsMontpellier fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.