AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
Pau FCPau FCLDDLW
Full time3-2Fri, 9 Oct 20269/1019:00UK
LavalLavalDLLLD

Pau FC 3-2 Laval shots: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined58.2%
Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined41.8%

Result

Pau FC3-2Laval
Shots in this match: Pau FC vs Laval
This match Pau FC Laval Total
Shots 16 11 27
Shots on target 8 5 13
Under 24.5Over 7.5

We called Under 24.5 at 58.2% and it missed (27 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 55.5% and it landed (13 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 24.5 shots41.8%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Pau FC.

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 54.7% 45.3%
24.5 shots 41.8% 58.2%
26.5 shots 30.0% 70.0%
28.5 shots 20.2% 79.8%

Who takes more shots

Pau FC
67.3%
Level
5.8%
Laval
26.9%

Team shots lines

Pau FC

Over 10.5
71.5%
Over 12.5
54.8%
Over 14.5
38.3%

Laval

Over 10.5
43.1%
Over 12.5
25.8%
Over 14.5
13.8%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 68.1% 31.9%
7.5 shots on target 55.5% 44.5%
8.5 shots on target 43.0% 57.0%
9.5 shots on target 31.6% 68.4%

Who has more on target

Pau FC
57.6%
Level
12.3%
Laval
30.1%

Team shots on target lines

Pau FC

Over 3.5
65.2%
Over 4.5
48.3%
Over 5.5
33.0%

Laval

Over 3.5
45.7%
Over 4.5
28.6%
Over 5.5
16.3%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Pau FC's; Laval gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Pau FC line Pau FC Laval
-4.5 41.4% 58.6%
-2.5 54.6% 45.5%
-0.5 67.3% 32.7%
+0.5 73.1% 26.9%

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: Pau FC in their home matches and Laval in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

Pau FCPau FC

Recorded 2026/27

LavalLaval
This season
Statistic
Pau FC
Laval
Shots per game
14.9
13.9

Shots faced per game
10.6
13.6

Shots on target per game
4.0
4.1

On target faced per game
4.4
5.3

Pau FC at home, Laval away
Statistic
Pau FC
Laval
Shots per game
18.3
12.3

Shots faced per game
9.0
15.3

Shots on target per game
5.3
3.7

On target faced per game
3.3
6.3

By half, this season

No verified half-by-half shot data for these teams this season yet.

Last six league matches
Statistic
Pau FC
Laval
Shots per game
14.5
15.2

Shots faced per game
10.8
12.5

Matches
6
6

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0366Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 17,005 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.3% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.0%✗ 57.4%✓ 56.9%✗ 58.7%✓ 55.2%✗ 56.2%✓ 65.6%✓ 63.0%✗ 57.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 24.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 24.5 52.0%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 24.5 57.4%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 24.5 56.9%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 24.5 58.7%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 41.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 54.7% for over 22.5 to 20.2% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.7%. Between the two sides, Pau FC are the model’s pick to have more shots at 67.3%, with a level count at 5.8%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Pau FC over 12.5 shots sits at 54.8% and Laval at 25.8%. This season Pau FC have averaged 14.9 shots a game and Laval 13.9.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

41.8%Over 24.5 shots
67.3%Most shots: Pau FC
54.8%Pau FC over 12.5 shots
25.8%Laval over 12.5 shots
55.5%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 41.8% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderPau FC are the pick to have more shots at 67.3%, volume and pressure move together.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 22.5 shots: over sits at 54.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many shots in Pau FC vs Laval?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 41.8% for Pau FC vs Laval.
Which team will have more shots in Pau FC vs Laval?
Before kickoff, the model rated Pau FC to take more shots at 67.3%.
How many shots do Laval take away from home?
Laval have taken 12.3 shots per game and faced 15.3 in recorded away league matches this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.