AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
LavalLavalLDLDL
Fri, 30 Oct 202630/1019:00UK
BoulogneBoulogneDLDWD

Laval vs Boulogne cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.7%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Faouzi Benchabane

Assigned per API-Football, seen 28 Oct 2026, 22:11 UTC. An assignment can change before kickoff.

Faouzi Benchabane in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 21 5
Goals 2.57 2.20
Yellow cards 3.81 4.00
Red cards 0.10 0.00
Corners 9.3 10.2
Fouls 29.3 27.0
Both teams scored 57% 60%
Over 2.5 goals 43% 60%
Home wins 29% 20%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
23 Oct 2026 Sochaux vs Annecy 1-3 4 Yes 2 0 18 19
10 Oct 2026 Nantes vs Reims 0-0 0 No 4 0 13 25
12 Sep 2026 Dunkerque vs St Etienne 2-1 3 Yes 6 0 6 35
28 Aug 2026 Rodez vs Pau FC 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 8 29
14 Aug 2026 Grenoble vs Metz 0-0 0 No 4 0 6 27
9 May 2026 Reims vs Pau FC 5-3 8 Yes 2 0 7 16
24 Apr 2026 Laval vs Rodez 0-0 0 No 3 0 8 26
18 Apr 2026 Troyes vs Boulogne 1-0 1 No 2 0 9 31
3 Apr 2026 Annecy vs Guingamp 1-0 1 No 5 1 11 24
13 Mar 2026 Clermont vs Pau FC 0-1 1 No 4 0 5 35

Faouzi Benchabane referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Laval vs Boulogne. Slightly more cards are projected for Boulogne for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.2% 24.8%
3.5 cards 55.3% 44.7%
4.5 cards 35.8% 64.2%
5.5 cards 20.4% 79.6%

Who picks up more cards

Laval
35.6%
Level
20.8%
Boulogne
43.6%

Team cards lines

Laval

Over 1.5
55.5%
Over 2.5
28.6%

Boulogne

Over 1.5
61.2%
Over 2.5
34.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Laval's; Boulogne gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Laval line Laval Boulogne
-1.5 18.6% 81.4%
-0.5 35.6% 64.4%
+0.5 56.4% 43.6%
+1.5 75.3% 24.7%

Red card

Any red card19.1%
Laval red card10.0%
Boulogne red card10.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 93.7% 6.3%
22.5 fouls 87.5% 12.5%
24.5 fouls 78.3% 21.7%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Laval Karim Abed 2 5.0 2.0
Laval Soulaimane Chamel 2 4.5 1.0
Boulogne Karim Abed 2 2.0 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

LavalLaval

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Laval at home and Boulogne away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BoulogneBoulogne
Statistic
Laval
Boulogne
Cards per game at this venue
·
3.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
1.8

Yellow cards per game
2.1
2.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.1
1.9

Matches with more cards than the opponent
42.9%
·

Matches with card data
7
5
Red cards this season
2
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 75.2% for over 2.5 to 20.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.3%. Between the two sides, Boulogne are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 20.8%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Laval over 1.5 cards sits at 55.5% and Boulogne at 61.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.1% (Laval 10.0%, Boulogne 10.2%). Laval’s most frequent referee this season, Karim Abed, has averaged 5.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

55.3%Over 3.5 cards
19.1%Any red card
43.6%Most cards: Boulogne
55.5%Laval over 1.5 cards
61.2%Boulogne over 1.5 cards
87.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherKarim Abed, Laval’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 19.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianBoulogne are the pick to collect more cards at 43.6%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
LavalLaval

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BoulogneBoulogne
Statistic
Laval
Boulogne
cards per game
2.3
·

fouls per game
14.4
17.5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Laval vs Boulogne?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.3% for Laval vs Boulogne.
Will there be a red card in Laval vs Boulogne?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Laval vs Boulogne?
The model rates Boulogne to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 2, Cards

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Cards predictions today

Related

Ligue 2Laval fixtures and statsBoulogne fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.