Ligue 2
Pau FCPau FCLDDLW
Full time3-2Fri, 9 Oct 20269/1019:00UK
LavalLavalDLLLD

Pau FC 3-2 Laval correct score: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

1-1 correct score12.6%
1-0 correct score9.2%
2-1 correct score9.1%

Result

Pau FC3-2Laval

Final score 3-2. The model gave that exact scoreline 2.8%.

Model read

No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.

Conviction: Open

Most likely · 12.6%1-1

Correct score

Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.

Rows = Pau FC goals, columns = Laval goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%.

The grid is the model's full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.

Most likely scorelines

  1. 1-112.6%
  2. 1-09.2%
  3. 2-19.1%
  4. 2-07.5%
  5. 1-27.3%
  6. 0-17.3%
  7. 0-07.0%
  8. 2-25.6%

Score probability grid

H / A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7% 7.3% 4.8% 2% 0.6% 0.2%
1 9.2% 12.6% 7.3% 3% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.5% 9.1% 5.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
3 3.8% 4.6% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.4% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Pau FC · Columns: Laval

Goals distribution

How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.

7.0%

0

16.5%

1

24.8%

2

22.2%

3

15.2%

4

13.7%

5+

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

Pau FCPau FCLast 5
L
Loss · 0-1
D
Draw · 2-2
D
Draw · 1-1
L
Loss · 0-1
W
Win · 2-0

1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses

LavalLavalLast 5
D
Draw · 1-1
L
Loss · 0-3
L
Loss · 1-2
L
Loss · 2-3
D
Draw · 1-1

0 wins · 2 draws · 3 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3Pau FCPau FC wins
1Draws
1LavalLaval wins
2.2Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
LavalLaval
0 – 1
Pau FCPau FC
Pau FCPau FC
1 – 0
LavalLaval
Pau FCPau FC
1 – 1
LavalLaval
LavalLaval
3 – 1
Pau FCPau FC
Pau FCPau FC
3 – 0
LavalLaval

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Most likely · 12.6% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Pau FC have averaged 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, Laval 1.0 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 51.7% for over 2.5 and 76.5% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.2 goals a game. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Looking at totals, the model sees 51.7% for three or more goals and 76.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Pau FC favoured at 43.7%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

43.7%Favoured: Pau FC
55.7%Both Teams to Score
51.7%Over 2.5 goals

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 1-1 on Correct Score. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The TacticianReads a balanced game from the 51.7% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutPau FC are the model’s pick on the result at 43.7%, context for how the goals may flow.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

What was the score in Pau FC vs Laval?
Pau FC vs Laval finished 3-2. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 12.6%; it gave the actual 3-2 a 2.8% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 2, Correct Score

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Related

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.