AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Ligue 1
Paris SGParis SGWWWWW
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1119:45UK7°C · Clearing
TroyesTroyesLLLDW

PSG vs Troyes corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined53.1%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined46.9%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners46.9%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Paris SG.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 70.9% 29.1%
8.5 corners 59.1% 40.9%
9.5 corners 46.9% 53.1%
10.5 corners 35.4% 64.6%
11.5 corners 25.5% 74.5%
12.5 corners 17.5% 82.5%

Who wins the corner count

Paris SG
56.2%
Level
10.6%
Troyes
33.2%

Team corners lines

Paris SG

Over 3.5
73.1%
Over 4.5
57.8%
Over 5.5
42.7%

Troyes

Over 3.5
57.5%
Over 4.5
40.3%
Over 5.5
26.0%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Paris SG's; Troyes gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Paris SG line Paris SG Troyes
-3.5 25.2% 74.8%
-1.5 45.2% 54.9%
-0.5 56.2% 43.8%
+0.5 66.8% 33.2%
Paris SGParis SG

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Paris SG at home and Troyes away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

TroyesTroyes
Statistic
Paris SG
Troyes
Corners won per game at this venue
·
7.0

Corners conceded per game at this venue
·
2.0

First-half corners won per game
2.1
3.9

Second-half corners won per game
3.6
3.3

Matches with more corners than the opponent
71.4%
100.0%

Matches with corner data
7
7

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0096Calibration error
50,949Matches graded

In 21,935 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 56.0%✗ 59.8%✓ 62.5%✓ 59.6%✓ 61.1%✗ 61.7%✓ 62.6%✓ 60.3%✗ 61.3%✗ 60.6%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 9.5 56.0%Miss
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 9.5 59.8%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Under 9.5 62.5%Hit
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 9.5 59.6%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 9.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 46.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.9% for over 7.5 to 17.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.9%. Head to head on corners, Paris SG are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.2%, with a level count at 10.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Paris SG over 4.5 corners sits at 57.8% and Troyes at 40.3%. This season Paris SG have averaged 5.7 corners won a game and Troyes 7.1.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

46.9%Over 9.5 corners
56.2%Most corners: Paris SG
57.8%Paris SG over 4.5 corners
40.3%Troyes over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.9% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderParis SG are the pick to win the corner count at 56.2%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 46.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Paris SGParis SG

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

TroyesTroyes
Statistic
Paris SG
Troyes
corners won per game
5.7
7.1

corners conceded per game
1.9
2.1

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Paris SG vs Troyes?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 46.9% for Paris SG vs Troyes.
Which team will win the corner count in Paris SG vs Troyes?
The model rates Paris SG to win the corner count at 56.2%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How many corners do Paris SG and Troyes average this season?
Paris SG have won 5.7 corners a game this season and Troyes 7.1.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Ligue 1PSG fixtures and statsTroyes fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.