AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 31 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
Paris SGParis SGWWWWW
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1119:45UK10°C · Rain
TroyesTroyesLLLLD

PSG vs Troyes shots prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined53.6%
Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined46.5%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 24.5 shots53.6%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Paris SG.

What the model expects

The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.

Treat as a range

Model expected shots and shots on target, Paris SG vs Troyes
Model expects Shots On target
Paris SG 14.4 5.7
Troyes 10.9 3.5
Both teams 25.3 9.2

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 65.9% 34.1%
24.5 shots 53.6% 46.5%
26.5 shots 41.1% 58.9%
28.5 shots 29.8% 70.2%

Who takes more shots

Paris SG
68.6%
Level
5.4%
Troyes
25.9%

Team shots lines

Paris SG

Over 10.5
78.6%
Over 12.5
63.7%
Over 14.5
47.5%

Troyes

Over 10.5
50.5%
Over 12.5
32.4%
Over 14.5
18.6%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Treat as a range

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 78.3% 21.7%
7.5 shots on target 67.4% 32.6%
8.5 shots on target 55.4% 44.6%
9.5 shots on target 43.4% 56.6%

Who has more on target

Paris SG
69.6%
Level
10.1%
Troyes
20.3%

Team shots on target lines

Paris SG

Over 3.5
78.9%
Over 4.5
64.6%
Over 5.5
49.3%

Troyes

Over 3.5
45.2%
Over 4.5
27.7%
Over 5.5
15.3%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Paris SG's; Troyes gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Paris SG line Paris SG Troyes
-4.5 43.9% 56.1%
-2.5 56.6% 43.4%
-0.5 68.6% 31.4%
+0.5 74.1% 25.9%

Player shots

Model probabilities for each listed player: two or more shots, and at least one shot on target. They come from the player's own shots per 90 minutes this season, scaled to the minutes he has averaged, and they assume he plays. Shots /90 is his recorded rate. Players reported out or suspended are left out. Not bookmaker odds.

Paris SG player shots
Paris SG 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Ousmane Dembélé 76.7% 70.8% 4.77
Ferrán Torres 62.4% 64.4% 3.44
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 69.2% 61.9% 3.68
Esteban Lepaul 69.9% 65.4% 2.91
Désiré Doué 60.8% 50.8% 3.18
Troyes player shots
Troyes 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Renaud Ripart 55.9% 46.5% 2.88
Antoine Mille 44.3% 31.3% 1.72
Lucas Maronnier 16.2% 13.6% 0.88
Dermane Karim 15.7% 7.7% 1.23
Adrien Monfray 30.8% 11.3% 1.12

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: Paris SG in their home matches and Troyes in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only Paris SG's home matches and Troyes's away matches.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

Last six at home and away: Paris SG's last six home league matches and Troyes's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.

Paris SGParis SG

Recorded 2026/27

TroyesTroyes
This season
Statistic
Paris SG
Troyes
Shots per game
20.9
14.4

Shots faced per game
11.1
12.4

Shots on target per game
7.3
3.1

On target faced per game
4.1
4.7

Matches with more shots
85.7%
42.9%

Matches
7
7
Paris SG at home, Troyes away
Statistic
Paris SG
Troyes
Shots per game
·
12.7

Shots faced per game
·
13.3

Shots on target per game
·
2.0

On target faced per game
·
5.0

Matches
2
3
By half, this season
Statistic
Paris SG
Troyes
1st-half shots
8.6
6.6

2nd-half shots
12.0
8.0

1st-half shots faced
4.7
6.0

2nd-half shots faced
6.1
6.4

1st-half shots on target
2.4
1.7

2nd-half shots on target
4.9
1.4

1st-half on target faced
1.9
1.9

2nd-half on target faced
2.3
2.9

Matches
7
7
By half, at home and away
Statistic
Paris SG
Troyes
1st-half shots
9.3
6.3

2nd-half shots
11.3
6.3

1st-half shots faced
2.7
5.7

2nd-half shots faced
5.0
7.7

1st-half shots on target
·
1.3

2nd-half shots on target
·
0.7

1st-half on target faced
·
2.0

2nd-half on target faced
·
3.0

Matches
3
3
Last six league matches
Statistic
Paris SG
Troyes
Shots per game
21.0
14.8

Shots faced per game
11.3
11.5

Shots on target per game
8.7
3.0

On target faced per game
4.3
4.8

1st-half shots
8.8
6.0

2nd-half shots
12.2
9.0

1st-half shots faced
4.3
5.7

2nd-half shots faced
6.8
5.8

Matches
6
6
Last six at home and away
Statistic
Paris SG
Troyes
Shots per game
20.5
9.2

Shots faced per game
7.0
15.2

Shots on target per game
7.7
1.5

On target faced per game
3.2
5.3

Matches
6
6

League average per match: 27.5 shots, 9.7 on target, 12.6 in the 1st half, 15.0 in the 2nd half.

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0367Calibration error
50,949Matches graded

In 13,110 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 57.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 31 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 54.7%✗ 50.1%✓ 53.8%✗ 51.6%✗ 52.8%✗ 55.8%✗ 57.3%✗ 54.2%✗ 55.6%✗ 55.0%
1 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 24.5 54.7%Miss
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Over 24.5 50.1%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Under 24.5 53.8%Hit
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 24.5 51.6%Miss
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 24.5 52.8%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 53.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 65.9% for over 22.5 to 29.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.6%. Head to head on shots, Paris SG are the model’s pick to have more shots at 68.6%, with a level count at 5.4%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Paris SG over 12.5 shots sits at 63.7% and Troyes at 32.4%. This season Paris SG have averaged 20.9 shots a game and Troyes 14.4. Paris SG take 8.6 shots before half-time and 12.0 after, Troyes 6.6 and 8.0.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

53.6%Over 24.5 shots
68.6%Most shots: Paris SG
63.7%Paris SG over 12.5 shots
32.4%Troyes over 12.5 shots
67.4%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.6% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderParis SG are the pick to have more shots at 68.6%, shot volume follows the side that keeps the ball in the final third.
The Clock WatcherParis SG average 8.6 shots in the first half and 12.0 in the second, so their volume builds as the game opens up.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 24.5 shots: over sits at 53.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many shots in Paris SG vs Troyes?
The model expects about 14.4 shots for Paris SG and 10.9 for Troyes, 25.3 in total, and rates over 24.5 total shots at 53.6%.
How many shots on target in Paris SG vs Troyes?
The model expects about 5.7 shots on target for Paris SG and 3.5 for Troyes, and rates over 7.5 shots on target at 67.4%.
Which team will have more shots in Paris SG vs Troyes?
The model rates Paris SG to take more shots at 68.6%.
How many shots do Troyes take away from home?
Troyes have taken 12.7 shots per game and faced 13.3 across 3 recorded away league matches this season.
Do Paris SG shoot more in the first or second half?
Paris SG average 8.6 shots before half-time and 12.0 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 1, Shots

Strasbourg vs Auxerre predictionLyon vs Angers predictionParis FC vs Monaco predictionMarseille vs Toulouse predictionLorient vs Brest predictionToulouse vs Strasbourg prediction

Shots on target predictions today

Related

Ligue 1PSG fixtures and statsTroyes fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.