AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Pro League
Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-HeverleeLLDWD
Full time2-2Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1017:15UK
Lommel SKLommel SKWLLDW

Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2-2 Lommel SK cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.4%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.6%

Result

Oud-Heverlee Leuven2-2Lommel SK
4 yellow cardsOud-Heverlee Leuven 2, Lommel SK 2
Under 3.5

We called Under 3.5 at 50.4% and it missed (4 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards49.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Jan Boterberg

Recorded match referee.

Jan Boterberg in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 27 5
Goals 2.41 2.80
Yellow cards 3.81 3.00
Red cards 0.19 0.20
Corners 9.8 8.8
Fouls 22.4 23.2
Both teams scored 44% 40%
Over 2.5 goals 41% 40%
Home wins 26% 20%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Lommel SK 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 12 28
20 Sep 2026 Antwerp vs St. Gilloise 0-2 2 No 5 1 8 29
6 Sep 2026 Anderlecht vs Genk 0-0 0 No 3 0 6 20
22 Aug 2026 Charleroi vs Mechelen 2-0 2 No 0 0 5 23
14 Aug 2026 Cercle Brugge vs St Truiden 3-3 6 Yes 3 0 13 16
23 May 2026 Standard vs Charleroi 0-2 2 No 8 1 15 22
17 May 2026 Anderlecht vs Mechelen 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 4 31
2 May 2026 St Truiden vs St. Gilloise 2-1 3 Yes 5 1 10 21
19 Apr 2026 Dender vs Cercle Brugge 1-4 5 Yes 4 0 10 22
10 Apr 2026 Charleroi vs Antwerp 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 11 26

Jan Boterberg referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Lommel SK. It tips Oud-Heverlee Leuven for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.4% 29.6%
3.5 cards 49.6% 50.4%
4.5 cards 30.6% 69.4%
5.5 cards 16.7% 83.3%

Who picks up more cards

Oud-Heverlee Leuven
40.3%
Level
21.6%
Lommel SK
38.2%

Team cards lines

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Over 1.5
55.0%
Over 2.5
28.5%

Lommel SK

Over 1.5
53.5%
Over 2.5
27.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Oud-Heverlee Leuven's; Lommel SK gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven line Oud-Heverlee Leuven Lommel SK
-1.5 21.7% 78.3%
-0.5 40.3% 59.8%
+0.5 61.8% 38.2%
+1.5 79.9% 20.2%

Red card

Any red card9.5%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven red card4.1%
Lommel SK red card5.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 60.8% 39.2%
22.5 fouls 46.1% 53.9%
24.5 fouls 32.4% 67.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Oud-Heverlee Leuven J. Vergoote 2 3.0 1.5
Oud-Heverlee Leuven Michiel Allaerts 2 3.5 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-Heverlee

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Oud-Heverlee Leuven at home and Lommel SK away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Lommel SKLommel SK
Statistic
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Lommel SK
Yellow cards per game
2.2
0.8

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.8
0.3

Matches with card data
1
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 49.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.4% for over 2.5 to 16.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.6%. Between the two sides, Oud-Heverlee Leuven are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.3%, with a level count at 21.6%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Oud-Heverlee Leuven over 1.5 cards sits at 55.0% and Lommel SK at 53.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.5% (Oud-Heverlee Leuven 4.1%, Lommel SK 5.6%). Oud-Heverlee Leuven’s most frequent referee this season, J. Vergoote, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

49.6%Over 3.5 cards
9.5%Any red card
40.3%Most cards: Oud-Heverlee Leuven
55.0%Oud-Heverlee Leuven over 1.5 cards
53.5%Lommel SK over 1.5 cards
46.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ. Vergoote, Oud-Heverlee Leuven’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 9.5%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianOud-Heverlee Leuven are the pick to collect more cards at 40.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
Oud-Heverlee LeuvenOud-Heverlee

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Lommel SKLommel SK
Statistic
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Lommel SK
fouls per game
11.3
6.7

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Lommel SK?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.6% for Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Lommel SK.
Will there be a red card in Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Lommel SK?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Lommel SK?
Before kickoff, the model rated Oud-Heverlee Leuven to pick up more cards at 40.3%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Pro LeagueOud-Heverlee Leuven fixtures and statsLommel SK fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.