Ligue 1
Nice vs 
Strasbourg Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 47.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 72.5% for over 7.5 to 18.6% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.7%. On the corner count, Nice are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.6%, with a level count at 10.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 8.5 corners | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| 11.5 corners | 26.9% | 73.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 18.6% | 81.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
74.4%
59.3%
44.1%
58.5%
41.2%
26.7%
Corner handicap
| Nice line | Nice | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 25.6% | 74.4% |
| -1.5 | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| -0.5 | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| +0.5 | 67.1% | 32.9% |
This season (2026/27)
2.3Strasbourg corners won per game6.8Strasbourg corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Nice.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
48.7%Over 9.5 corners59.3%Nice over 4.5 corners41.2%Strasbourg over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Nice over 4.5 corners sits at 59.3% and Strasbourg at 41.2%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Nice vs Strasbourg?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 48.7% for Nice vs Strasbourg.
Which team will win the corner count in Nice vs Strasbourg?
The model rates Nice to win the corner count at 56.6%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
