Ligue 1
Lille vs 
Le Havre Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 46.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 71.7% for over 7.5 to 18.0% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.8%. Head to head on corners, Lille are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.7%, with a level count at 10.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| 8.5 corners | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 47.8% | 52.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 26.1% | 73.9% |
| 12.5 corners | 18.0% | 82.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
74.5%
59.5%
44.3%
57.0%
39.7%
25.3%
Corner handicap
| Lille line | Lille | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| -1.5 | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| -0.5 | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| +0.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% |
This season (2026/27)
5.3Le Havre corners won per game5.0Le Havre corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Lille.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
47.8%Over 9.5 corners59.5%Lille over 4.5 corners39.7%Le Havre over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Lille over 4.5 corners sits at 59.5% and Le Havre at 39.7%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Lille vs Le Havre?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 47.8% for Lille vs Le Havre.
Which team will win the corner count in Lille vs Le Havre?
The model rates Lille to win the corner count at 57.7%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
