Nice vs Strasbourg prediction & probabilities (2026-10-11)

Ligue 1

Nice vs Strasbourg Both Teams to Score

2026-10-11 · 14:00
Both Teams to Score59.2%Both teams to score · Yes
Best predictionBoth teams to score · Yes · 59.2%A moderate lean, nothing emphatic. Calibrated, not a tip.
59%

model probability

ConvictionModerate

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Both teams to score · Yes at 59.2%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. Recent output points the same way: Nice have averaged 0.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, Strasbourg 2.8 and 2.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 55.9% for over 2.5 and 79.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. Nice have seen both teams score in 1 of their last 5, Strasbourg in 4 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.

Both Teams to Score

★ ModelYes59.2%

No40.8%

Over 2.5 · context55.9%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

Nice scored

0.2

Nice conceded

1.0

Strasbourg scored

2.8

Strasbourg conceded

2.4

Each team to score

Nice to score74.5%

Nice 2+ goals39.8%

Strasbourg to score78.6%

Strasbourg 2+ goals45.8%

By half

Both score in 1st half22.0%

Both score in 2nd half30.6%

This season (2026/27)

80.0%Strasbourg BTTS rate
0.0%Strasbourg clean sheets
2.0Strasbourg goals scored per game

Goals distribution

How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.

6.0%

0

14.6%

1

23.6%

2

22.4%

3

16.3%

4

16.3%

5+

In-depth analysis

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

42.8%Favoured: Strasbourg
59.2%Both Teams to Score
55.9%Over 2.5 goals

Looking at totals, the model sees 55.9% for three or more goals and 79.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Strasbourg favoured at 42.8%, a competitive game tends to open up.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 59.2% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianSees an open, higher-tempo game from the 55.9% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutStrasbourg are the model’s pick on the result at 42.8%, a lean on probability, never on price.

Match outlook

Nice32.2%

Draw25.1%

Strasbourg42.8%

The model leans Strasbourg to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

I

Isak JanssonNice · 2.26 shots/90
To score 4.1%

C

Conrad HarderStrasbourg · 4.36 shots/90
To score 11.4%

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

NiceDDLDL
StrasbourgWLWWD

Last 5 meetings: Nice 2 · 2 draws · Strasbourg 1 · 3.4 goals/game.

Recent trends

NiceBTTS 1/5Over 2.5 1/5
StrasbourgBTTS 4/5Over 2.5 4/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Will both teams score in Nice vs Strasbourg?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 59.2% for Nice vs Strasbourg.

Will Nice score against Strasbourg?
The model rates Nice to score at 74.5% and Strasbourg to score at 78.6%.

How often have Nice seen both teams score recently?
Nice have seen both teams score in 1 of their last 5, Strasbourg in 4 of 5.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0232Calibration error
55,473Matches graded

In 26,677 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 58.1%✓ 57.7%✗ 52.4%✗ 50.5%✗ 50.8%✗ 51.4%✗ 50.4%✓ 57.1%✓ 53.6%✗ 50.2%
4 of 10 recent calls hit.
Betis vs Getafe2026-09-17No 58.1%Hit
Malaga vs Villarreal2026-09-17Yes 57.7%Hit
Ath Madrid vs Osasuna2026-09-16Yes 52.4%Miss
La Coruna vs Sevilla2026-09-16Yes 50.5%Miss
Barcelona vs Santander2026-09-16No 50.8%Miss

More Ligue 1, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

Related

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.