Ligue 1
Nice vs 
Strasbourg Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 45.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.3% for over 2.5 to 13.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.6%. On the card count, Strasbourg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.8%, with a level count at 22.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 13.8% | 86.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
48.8%
22.7%
54.6%
27.7%
Card handicap
| Nice line | Nice | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| -0.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| +0.5 | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| +1.5 | 77.0% | 23.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 37.1% | 62.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Strasbourg cards per game11.8Strasbourg fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Nice vs Strasbourg. Slightly more cards are projected for Strasbourg for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
45.6%Over 3.5 cards14.6%Any red card48.8%Nice over 1.5 cards54.6%Strasbourg over 1.5 cards51.4%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Nice over 1.5 cards sits at 48.8% and Strasbourg at 54.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.6% (Nice 5.3%, Strasbourg 9.8%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Nice vs Strasbourg?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 45.6% for Nice vs Strasbourg.
Will there be a red card in Nice vs Strasbourg?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Nice vs Strasbourg?
The model rates Strasbourg to pick up more cards at 42.8%, with a level count at 22.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
